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March 16th - We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Tuesday, followed by another 25 basis point hike in May. We then expect the RBA to pause rate hikes to assess whether the increase in the cash rate is sufficient to curb inflation risks. We believe the risks to the 4.35% terminal interest rate forecast are skewed to the upside. The Middle East conflict has now moved beyond a short-term geopolitical shock and entered a phase where oil supply shortages may be more prolonged. The most definite and immediate impact of the Middle East conflict on Australia is rising inflation. Demand will also be somewhat damaged by affecting disposable income, but the timing and extent of this impact are uncertain. Given that inflation is above target and the labor market is considered strained, inflation risks are likely more central to the Committee than risks to economic activity. Escalating inflation risks will exacerbate these concerns, thus increasing the urgency to curb inflation expectations.March 16th - According to the Financial Times, restaurants in India have stopped using frying as a cooking method due to the natural gas crisis. The war between the US and Israel against Iran has disrupted global energy supplies, and South Asia, heavily reliant on natural gas from Gulf states, is among the hardest-hit regions. Indian Prime Minister Modi told the Indian people "there is no need to panic," but reports of hoarding, theft, and price gouging are rampant in the worlds most populous country as people rush to buy increasingly scarce liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cylinders (primarily used for cooking). Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif, in a national address, stated, "If this situation continues to worsen, these prices will certainly get out of control."The Philippine House of Representatives has authorized President Marcos to suspend the fuel tax.On March 16th, it was reported that nine departments, including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Finance, jointly issued the "Five-Year Action Plan for Work Injury Prevention (2026-2030)," outlining the national work injury prevention efforts during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Action Plan prioritizes work injury prevention under work injury insurance, firmly establishing the concept of prevention first. Through five years of effort, the plan aims to achieve a continuous decline in the incidence of work-related accidents, with a reduction of approximately 10% in key industries over five years; a gradual reduction in the occupational injury rate among workers in new employment forms, with a reduction of over 10% in key platform enterprises over five years; continuous improvement in workplace working conditions; and a significant decrease in the number of people suffering from key occupational diseases such as occupational pneumoconiosis.Sources say an airstrike on Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces positions northwest of Mosul has wounded three people.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Continues to Rally Toward Jobs Figure

Skylar Shaw

Feb 03, 2023 15:31


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has risen a little during Thursday's trading session as it seems we will aim to reach the 4200 mark. At this point, the market will almost certainly experience some selling pressure, but there is also the upcoming release of the Non-Farm Payroll report, which is something to keep an eye on. At this point, a pullback would probably be caused by high numbers, as people will start to worry once more about the Federal Reserve and whether or not they will be required to continue tightening the monetary policy.


As the round number is definitely going to draw a lot of attention, the 200-Day EMA is sitting just above the 4000 level, and that is certainly an area that a lot of people would pay special attention to.


The market may very easily challenge the 50-Day EMA if we go below the 200-Day EMA. Much of this depends on whether or not people think that the Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy tight and cause the economy to grow slowly. The market doesn't seem to be particularly interested in what the Federal Reserve has to say right now, at least not after the announcement on Wednesday.


As we are in the middle of earnings season, there is a lot to keep an eye on, so it makes sense in a certain sense that volatility would likely increase rather than decrease. This will move quickly towards the 4300 level if we can remove the 4200 level following the jobs number.

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