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Conflict Update: 1. Houthi rebels claim to have struck Saudi Arabia twice in one day. 2. Saudi Arabia confirms coalition strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. 3. Houthi rebels claim to have struck a southern Saudi city. 4. Lebanon claims Israeli military action caused a powerful explosion in the countrys south. 5. Sources say missiles that attacked a Saudi oil refinery were intercepted. 6. After 13 consecutive nights of strikes against Iran, the US military has not announced any further airstrikes against Iran. 7. Houthi spokesperson: The maritime blockade is the first step in a "blockade for blockade" operation. 8. Zelensky: Ukraine attacked ships carrying Iranian military supplies in the Caspian Sea. 9. Security sources: Iraqi air defenses shot down a drone near the US consulate in Erbil. 10. Two Yemeni military officials say the Yemeni air force struck Houthi missile and drone launch sites along the front lines in Marib and Jawf provinces. 11. UK Maritime Trade Organization: Received a report on Friday of an incident involving an oil tanker and military forces in the Gulf of Oman. 12. Trump: If we dont get 100% what we want, we will consider resuming a full-scale war. 13. Iranian Revolutionary Guard: The number of American deaths in Operation Victory 2 exceeds 200. US-Iran Negotiations 1. US President Trump: The Iranian side is currently in contact with us, but I dont think they are ready to reach an agreement. 2. It is reported that negotiations between Oman and Iran have made progress, and Trump called a halt to the strikes against Iran on Friday. Strait of Hormuz 1. US Central Command: The US maritime blockade against Iran remains fully enforced. As of July 25, 12 merchant ships attempting to break the blockade have been forced to change course, 2 disobedient vessels have had their navigation capabilities disabled, and 2 vessels have been boarded for inspection to ensure full compliance. 2. US Central Command: On July 24, measures were taken in the Gulf of Oman to stop the Mozambican-flagged oil tanker "Lavine" from sailing. 3. Spokesperson for the Iranian Parliaments National Security Committee: The main point of contention between Iran and the United States is the Strait of Hormuz. The strait will never return to its pre-war state. Other developments: 1. Iranian official: The Ghoshka facility is "currently empty." 2. Bahrain and Kuwait were reported to have secretly launched airstrikes against Iran; Kuwait denied this. 3. Israeli forces launched a large-scale manhunt in the West Bank, detaining more than 70 Palestinians. 4. The US and UK plan to hold a meeting on the Strait of Hormuz issue to promote the formation of a Hormuz maritime security coalition. 5. According to Irans Press TV: Following Yemens attack on oil refineries, large-scale queues for refueling have appeared across Saudi Arabia. 6. Qatars Ministry of Transport: From July 26, all types of maritime transport and shipping activities will fully resume. 7. Qatars Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The Prime Minister and Foreign Minister confirmed the need for all parties to commit to implementing the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. 8. A spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that if Britain supports the US in the war, it will become a clear and legitimate target. 9. A drone crashed near the residence of Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gevil in Hebron; there were no casualties. 10. Iran: Sold a total of $18 billion worth of oil during the war and ceasefire.Ukrainian Air Force: Russian forces are attacking Kyiv with ballistic missiles.U.S. Central Command: Earlier today, the U.S. military completed an inspection and boarding of the Comoros-flagged oil tanker “Charminar” in the Arabian Sea. The tanker has now continued its voyage.According to the Iranian Students News Agency, Iraqi sources say that several violent explosions and widespread fires have occurred at the Jambul oil field in Iraqs Kirkuk province.According to Irans Fars News Agency, a spokesperson for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard stated that if Britain supports the United States in a war, it will become a clear and legitimate target.

Silver price forecast: XAG/USD slides below 20/50-DMAs, below $20

Alina Haynes

Aug 19, 2022 11:50

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Silver price falls for the fifth straight day as an upbeat market attitude weighs on the non-yielding metal. In addition, broad US currency strength kept white metal prices under pressure as Fed officials reiterated the need to bring inflation down and US jobs data bolstered the case for a September rate hike.

 

The XAG/USD is at $19.50, down from Thursday's $19.93 high. Wall Street gained despite sparse trading. Claims for unemployment in the week ending August 13 fell less than expected, but the housing market cooled. July existing home sales were 5.9% lower than in May 2020.

 

San Francisco's Mary Daly said it's too early to declare inflation victory and favored a 50 or 75 bps boost for September. Kansas City Fed's Esther George said core inflation is "hardly comfortable" and more rate hikes are coming.

 

St. Louis Fed hawk James Bullard said he's leaning toward a 75 bps rate hike in September, but Minnesota Fed's Neil Kashkari said there's more work to be done and he's not convinced the Fed can escape a recession.

 

Kashkara is unsure if the Fed can attain its target without a recession, but other officials remain focused on inflation. Further rate hikes are predicted in 2022 and 2023.

 

Money market futures STIRs have priced in a 50 bps September rise. After the release of July's FOMC minutes, probabilities of a 75-bps hike rose to 78% from 50% on Wednesday.

 

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value versus a basket of rivals, rose 0.7% to 107.492, a headwind for precious metals prices. Most US Treasury bond yields fell two basis points, headed by the 10-year benchmark note rate.

 

The US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle will keep XAG/USD prices down. If the Fed can manage a "soft" landing, silver dealers can expect more selling. Safe-haven flows might benefit gold if US economic growth slows and creates a recession.


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