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Silver price forecast: XAG/USD slides below 20/50-DMAs, below $20

Alina Haynes

Aug 19, 2022 11:50

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Silver price falls for the fifth straight day as an upbeat market attitude weighs on the non-yielding metal. In addition, broad US currency strength kept white metal prices under pressure as Fed officials reiterated the need to bring inflation down and US jobs data bolstered the case for a September rate hike.

 

The XAG/USD is at $19.50, down from Thursday's $19.93 high. Wall Street gained despite sparse trading. Claims for unemployment in the week ending August 13 fell less than expected, but the housing market cooled. July existing home sales were 5.9% lower than in May 2020.

 

San Francisco's Mary Daly said it's too early to declare inflation victory and favored a 50 or 75 bps boost for September. Kansas City Fed's Esther George said core inflation is "hardly comfortable" and more rate hikes are coming.

 

St. Louis Fed hawk James Bullard said he's leaning toward a 75 bps rate hike in September, but Minnesota Fed's Neil Kashkari said there's more work to be done and he's not convinced the Fed can escape a recession.

 

Kashkara is unsure if the Fed can attain its target without a recession, but other officials remain focused on inflation. Further rate hikes are predicted in 2022 and 2023.

 

Money market futures STIRs have priced in a 50 bps September rise. After the release of July's FOMC minutes, probabilities of a 75-bps hike rose to 78% from 50% on Wednesday.

 

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value versus a basket of rivals, rose 0.7% to 107.492, a headwind for precious metals prices. Most US Treasury bond yields fell two basis points, headed by the 10-year benchmark note rate.

 

The US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle will keep XAG/USD prices down. If the Fed can manage a "soft" landing, silver dealers can expect more selling. Safe-haven flows might benefit gold if US economic growth slows and creates a recession.


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