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On March 21, following the conditional easing of US sanctions on Iranian oil, an Axios reporter stated that this move would allow Iran to earn approximately $14 billion in oil revenue. This would be the first time the US has purchased Iranian oil since 1996, all during the war with Iran. However, the New York Times points out that it remains unclear whether the limited lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil will affect global oil prices. Energy analysts believe that most of the crude oil shipped by sea has already been purchased and accounted for, meaning that lifting sanctions on this oil will not significantly increase the supply of oil in the market. Former US Treasury official Daniel Tannebaum stated, "I dont think Iranian crude oil will be imported into the United States." He added, "First, the supply of crude oil is a problem because most of it has already been booked; second, which global bank is funding the Iranian oil trade, regardless of whether such trade is legal?"On March 21, Sun Meijun, Director-General of the General Administration of Customs, met with Lee Myung-koo, Director-General of the Korean Customs Service, who was in China to attend the 20th China-Korea Customs Cooperation Conference. The meeting focused on implementing the important consensus reached by the leaders of China and South Korea, deepening customs cooperation between the two countries, and jointly promoting trade security and facilitation in China, South Korea, and the Asia-Pacific region. Three customs cooperation documents were signed. Following the meeting, Zhang Baofeng and Lee Myung-koo co-chaired the 20th China-Korea Customs Cooperation Conference. Both sides exchanged in-depth views on strengthening the partnership in "smart customs," deepening electronic networking of rules of origin, risk management, customs statistics, intellectual property protection, mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators (AEO), inter-customs cooperation, and anti-smuggling enforcement cooperation, reaching broad consensus on cooperation.On March 21, according to the US-based "War Zone" website, the Pentagon confirmed that a US F-35A fighter jet operating over Iran made an emergency return and landed at an undisclosed US military airfield in the Middle East. Video released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard shows the stealth fighter jet being attacked. Foreign media reports suggest this may be the first time an F-35 has been hit in combat since its introduction, setting a new world record for air combat.On March 21, German Chancellor Merz stated at an event in Bad Duckheim, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany, on March 20 that he had intended to invite US President Trump to the local wine festival in 2026, but he was unsure if Trump would be willing to attend because Trump is currently "not very happy" with him. Furthermore, Merz said that Germany currently holds "completely different views" from the US on some issues. He also stated that the "Make America Great Again" movement is unrelated to other countries, and that Germany holds different views on American culture, media products, and some democratic ideals.On March 21, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued a statement saying that Iran recently launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel. IDF rescue forces stated that Iran launched a ballistic missile carrying a cluster bomb warhead into central Israel, causing damage to three locations in Rishon LeZion.

Silver price forecast: XAG/USD slides below 20/50-DMAs, below $20

Alina Haynes

Aug 19, 2022 11:50

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Silver price falls for the fifth straight day as an upbeat market attitude weighs on the non-yielding metal. In addition, broad US currency strength kept white metal prices under pressure as Fed officials reiterated the need to bring inflation down and US jobs data bolstered the case for a September rate hike.

 

The XAG/USD is at $19.50, down from Thursday's $19.93 high. Wall Street gained despite sparse trading. Claims for unemployment in the week ending August 13 fell less than expected, but the housing market cooled. July existing home sales were 5.9% lower than in May 2020.

 

San Francisco's Mary Daly said it's too early to declare inflation victory and favored a 50 or 75 bps boost for September. Kansas City Fed's Esther George said core inflation is "hardly comfortable" and more rate hikes are coming.

 

St. Louis Fed hawk James Bullard said he's leaning toward a 75 bps rate hike in September, but Minnesota Fed's Neil Kashkari said there's more work to be done and he's not convinced the Fed can escape a recession.

 

Kashkara is unsure if the Fed can attain its target without a recession, but other officials remain focused on inflation. Further rate hikes are predicted in 2022 and 2023.

 

Money market futures STIRs have priced in a 50 bps September rise. After the release of July's FOMC minutes, probabilities of a 75-bps hike rose to 78% from 50% on Wednesday.

 

The US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value versus a basket of rivals, rose 0.7% to 107.492, a headwind for precious metals prices. Most US Treasury bond yields fell two basis points, headed by the 10-year benchmark note rate.

 

The US Federal Reserve's tightening cycle will keep XAG/USD prices down. If the Fed can manage a "soft" landing, silver dealers can expect more selling. Safe-haven flows might benefit gold if US economic growth slows and creates a recession.