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On September 11th, Futures News reported that data released by the China Futures Association on September 10th showed that, calculated unilaterally, the national futures market saw a trading volume of 1.087 billion lots and a turnover of 85.04 trillion yuan in August, representing year-on-year increases of 29.05% and 30.67%, respectively. Looking at the first eight months, the national futures markets cumulative trading volume reached 7.194 billion lots, with a cumulative turnover of 654.02 trillion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of 20.36% and 37.37%, respectively. 1. Wei Gang, chief economist at Hengtai Futures, told reporters that the August futures market saw a "simultaneous increase in both volume and price," mainly driven by three factors: First, both volume and price increased in non-ferrous metals and precious metals. Second, the crude oil and energy sectors saw a significant increase in trading volume due to geopolitical factors. Third, the chemical and agricultural futures sectors showed a strong trend and high trading activity due to cost transmission and supply-demand disturbances. Hongyuan Futures analyst Wang Jiangnan stated that, judging from the performance of various commodities, commodity futures were generally strong in August, with most major contracts closing higher. Coking coal saw a cumulative increase of over 45% in August, the energy and chemical sector generally rose, and the precious metals sector also strengthened. Looking ahead to September, Wang Jiangnan believes that the Federal Reserves monetary policy expectations are a key macroeconomic variable, with the probability of a September rate hike rising to 60%, which will suppress the performance of precious metals and risk assets. The ferrous metals sector is entering its traditional peak season, and actual demand will be the main factor determining whether the sectors performance can be sustained. Non-ferrous metals may exhibit a pattern of "structural recovery and product differentiation," maintaining high-level fluctuations in the short term. Wei Gang added that, in addition to the Federal Reserves monetary policy path, the evolution of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East is also an important factor affecting futures market trading.On September 11th, Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management believes that the recent rise in the yen signals a broader correction of the currencys long-term undervaluation. Michael Nizad, the firms head of strategy, wrote that for many years, the yens movements have been primarily driven by the US-Japan interest rate differential and its role as a funding currency for global carry trades; now, the yen is beginning to trade more based on its own fundamentals. He wrote, "The yen may be beginning to trade as a fundamentally-driven currency again. Any pullbacks in yen cross rates should increasingly be seen as opportunities to rebuild or increase long yen positions."The Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.3%, German DAX futures fell 0.3%, and UK FTSE futures fell 0.1%.Market news: Next week, SpaceXs AI team will start a company from scratch and broadcast the entire process live.According to data from South Korean customs, semiconductor exports increased by 270.1% year-on-year from September 1 to 10.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG/USD is around the daily high and is set for additional appreciation

Alina Haynes

Dec 26, 2022 19:12

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Silver receives new offers on Friday, snapping a two-day losing run and halting this week's retreat from an eight-month peak. The white metal maintains its bid tone throughout the first half of the European session and is currently positioned near the daily high, in the vicinity of $23.75.

 

The development of purchasing at the $23.40-$23.35 horizontal resistance breakpoint, which is now acting as support, favors bullish traders from a technical standpoint. The restrictive setting is backed by oscillators on the daily chart maintaining their positive bias and oscillators on the 4-hour chart regaining momentum.

 

Consequently, a subsequent rally toward recovering the $24.00 threshold remains a real possibility. The next significant barrier is located at the multi-month high, in the vicinity of the $24.30 region that was achieved on Wednesday. If this barrier is cleared, the XAG/USD should rise towards the $25.00 psychological level, with an intermediate barrier near the $24.60-$24.70 region.

 

On the other hand, the $24.40-$24.35 resistance-turned-support, which is also the daily low, should protect the near-term downside before to the $24.15 confluence support. The latter consists of the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart and an ascending trend line extending from the November low, which should provide a solid foundation for the XAG/USD.

 

A convincing breakthrough, followed by a decline below the $23.00 round number, will negate the positive view and alter the bias towards bearish traders. The XAG/USD may therefore become susceptible and accelerate its decline to test the $22.00 round-figure level, with some intermediate support in the $22.55-$22.50 horizontal zone.