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A Reuters poll indicates that the Polish central bank is expected to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 4.00% on Wednesday.On January 12th, Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius stated that the threat of criminal prosecution against the Federal Reserve Chairman will exacerbate market concerns about the central banks independence, but he expects the Fed to continue making policy decisions based on economic data. Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Global Strategy Conference in 2026, Hatzius said, "Clearly, concerns about a potential blow to the Feds independence are increasing, and the latest news regarding the criminal investigation of Chairman Powell has further reinforced these concerns." He added, "I have no doubt that Powell will continue to make decisions based on economic data for the remainder of his term, and will not be swayed in any direction by pressure—whether its raising or lowering interest rates, it will follow data guidance."On January 12th, ABN Amro economist Roger Quedflich stated in a report that the investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could jeopardize the Feds prospects for interest rate cuts in the near term. He pointed out that the challenge to the Feds independence could prompt Fed governors to take a hardline stance, delaying rate cut decisions to "defend the Fed." The investigation concerns cost overruns in a Fed headquarters renovation project, which Quedflich believes is seen as a means to pressure the Fed chairman and force his resignation, thereby expanding government influence. He stated, "If the situation continues to escalate, rate cuts may be postponed."On January 12th, ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole stated in a report that the dollar faces a significant risk of decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the Fed had received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice for overspending on its headquarters renovations. He pointed out that this move has reignited market concerns about the Feds independence and could trigger another "sell-America" trade. Pesole stated, "Any further signs of interference in the Feds independence will pose a considerable downside risk to the dollar."ECB Governing Council member Mueller: There is no reason for further interest rate cuts in the short term.

Silver Price Analysis: XAG / USD hovers around $20.00 ahead of US NFP

Alina Haynes

Mar 10, 2023 11:25

 截屏2022-06-07 下午5.18.01.png

 

Silver price continues to trade sideways on Thursday, in the absence of a catalyst, prior to the release of crucial US economic data. The Mexican Peso (MXN) is depreciating as a result of investors' risk aversion ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report for February. At the time of writing, the XAG / USD exchange rate was $20.05, an increase of 0.19%.

 

XAG / USD remained steady throughout the day, unable to break above or below the $19.98-$20.28 range. However, investors should be aware that Silver fell below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $21.80, indicating a downward bias for the precious metal. Notably, the 50-day EMA is approaching the 200-day EMA, and once it crosses below the latter, a death cross would exacerbate a decline toward the $18.84 daily low from November 3.

 

But first, XAG / USD must surpass the YTD low of $19.92. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological level of $19.00, followed by the daily low on November 3 at $18.84.

 

In an alternative scenario, the first level of resistance for XAG / USD would be the daily high of $20.06. Once cleared, the next resistance level would be the daily low-turned resistance from February 28 at $20.43, followed by the daily low-turned resistance from November 28 at $20.87.


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