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On April 27th, Barclays analysts stated in a report that with inflation remaining high, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at its meeting this week, but a rate cut is still possible this year. The analysts said, "In a highly uncertain environment, the Fed tends to remain on hold. Strong demand and still relatively high inflation support its patience, and policymakers have also signaled a diminishing confidence in further rate cuts in the near term." The analysts indicated that if inflation falls as expected, the Fed is expected to gain sufficient confidence to begin easing policy around September. "We still expect it to cut rates this year." According to LSEG data, the money market currently prices in a 10 basis point rate cut by the Fed in 2026.The Philippine Department of Energy announced that the United States has approved an extension of the exemption period for the Philippines to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products.Toyota Motor Corp. reported a sales decline in March as demand for its best-selling RAV4 model weakened ahead of a facelift, while the conflict in Iran threatened to cut off key supplies, forcing the manufacturer to potentially reduce production. The company said Monday that global sales (including those of its subsidiaries Daihatsu and Hino) fell 5.8% year-on-year to 983,126 vehicles in March, while global production rose 3.9% to 1.02 million vehicles. These figures suggest that the worlds largest automaker is managing to stay afloat despite rising prices for raw materials such as aluminum and the base cost of auto parts due to the turmoil in the Middle East. Suppliers are preparing for shortages that could last for months, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and shipping returns to normal. Refineries need time to resume operations, and shipping companies need to digest the congestion caused by hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. Major supplier Denso Corp. said in March that the ongoing conflict had reduced Japans monthly auto production by approximately 20,000 vehicles.Japans leading economic indicators for February came in at 1.3% month-on-month, compared with 0.3% previously.Japans leading indicator final reading for February was 113.3, compared to 112.4 in the previous month.

S&P 500 (SPY) Declines As Treasury Yields Test New Highs

Alice Wang

Sep 07, 2022 16:27

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Tech stock prices are still quite volatile. As oil markets retreat, energy equities are falling.

Stocks Are Under Pressure As Yields Rise

The S&P 500 is down today as tech companies continue to under intense pressure due to increasing Treasury rates.


While the yield on 2-year Treasuries neared the 3.50% mark, the yield on 10-year Treasuries increased to multi-month highs at 3.35%. The yield curve's inversion suggests that investors in bonds are concerned about a possible recession.


It should be highlighted that European government bond markets are seeing significant movement.


Trading fears that the energy crisis will result in further money printing, which is why UK bonds are touching new lows. Germany's bonds are also under a lot of pressure, and it seems that the ECB may be selling them to support the bonds of other members that are less strong, like Italy or Greece.


While the rates on European bonds do not directly affect American markets, a possible debt crisis in the EU and UK might have a substantial negative influence on the S&P 500. In light of this, traders should keep an eye on these bond markets' movements in the following weeks.


Technically speaking, the S&P 500 keeps trying to settle below the 3915 mark. A successful challenge of this level will indicate that the S&P 500 is prepared to pick up speed on the downside.

Tech Shares Remain Weak

The market as a whole keeps falling due to tech stocks. Other top tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and others continue to under criticism.


Today's decline in WTI oil prices has also affected energy equities like Exxon and Chevron.


The safe-haven market has the highest concentration of stock demand. Today, there is some support for stocks including Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth Group, and Eli Lilly.


From a broad perspective, it is clear that the S&P 500 will be unable to pick up speed without a significant recovery in the tech stock sector.