EUR/USD
1.18415
-0.213%
Gold
3676.56
-0.359%
Oil
63.839
-0.514%
USD/JPY
146.392
-0.038%
GBP/USD
1.36513
0.048%
GBP/JPY
199.848
0.017%
Real-time News
Meme: What are the types of headaches?On September 17th, the cost of insuring euro-denominated credit against default remained low ahead of the Federal Reserves interest rate decision. AJ Bell analyst Russ Mould said in a report, "Today is the key day investors have been anticipating all year—the Fed is likely to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025." Mould noted that a 25 basis point rate cut could further boost market sentiment, but a 50 basis point cut (currently considered less likely) could spark market concerns about the US economic outlook. According to S&P Global Market Intelligence data, the European cross credit default swap index, which measures the risk of default on euro high-yield bonds, fell 1 basis point to 251 basis points, approaching the 3.5-year low of 248 basis points reached on Monday.On September 17, TA Securities warned that if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady and incoming data continues to weaken, the market could interpret this as a policy mistake. This scenario could prompt investors to shift toward healthcare and consumer staples stocks, leading to outflows from financial, industrial, and growth-reliant technology sectors. U.S. Treasury prices could rebound, while overall risk appetite could fade.On September 17, TA Securities predicted that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as expected, the market will react by "buying the forecast and selling the reality," as most investors have already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. A 25 basis point rate cut would be interpreted as a cautious, supportive, "insurance" cut aimed at maintaining growth momentum without signaling distress. This environment typically favors consumer staples, healthcare, and technology stocks, which benefit from lower borrowing costs and have defensive or secular growth characteristics. Financial stocks, on the other hand, tend to underperform the broader market due to the impact of narrowing interest rate spreads on earnings.On September 17, Russias weekly crude oil exports fell sharply, driven by a decline in cargo volumes at Baltic ports due to Ukrainian drone attacks that affected facilities in key Russian regions. Vessel tracking data showed that Russias average daily seaborne crude oil exports were approximately 3.18 million barrels in the week ending September 14, down 934,000 barrels from the previous week, marking the largest weekly drop since July of last year. However, the less volatile four-week average of exports rose slightly: the week ending September 14 was revised to an average of 3.46 million barrels per day, higher than the revised average of 3.42 million barrels per day in the week ending September 7. This rebound was due to the previous weeks exceptionally large exports, when Russias exports of Urals crude oil through Black Sea and Baltic ports drove cargo volume growth. The four-week average data can more clearly reflect the underlying trend.
