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On March 19th, a research report from CICC stated that the Federal Reserves decision to maintain interest rates at its March meeting was in line with market expectations. The dot plot and economic forecasts indicate upward revisions to inflation expectations and a narrowing of the room for rate cuts, suggesting a cautious overall policy stance. Although Powell believes the uncertainty surrounding oil price shocks is significant and the economy remains resilient, we believe the actual situation is more complex. Tariffs and immigration policies have already constrained supply, and coupled with the oil price shock, the US economy is entering a "stagflation-like" phase. Simultaneously, private lending risks are emerging, and financial conditions may tighten spontaneously. Against this backdrop, the Fed may remain on hold in the short term due to inflation stickiness; in the medium term, as demand weakens or financial risks escalate, policy will face pressure to passively shift towards rate cuts. We expect the Fed to maintain interest rates unchanged in the first half of the year, with a resumption of rate cuts postponed until the second half. However, if rate cuts are a passive response to a deteriorating economic or financial environment, it will be difficult to boost market risk appetite.Market news: HSBC is considering large-scale layoffs in a multi-year restructuring driven by artificial intelligence.Samsung Electronics shares fell 4%, and SK Hynix shares fell 4.2%.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say India has purchased more than 30 million barrels of unsold Russian oil. More deals are expected soon.March 19 (Futures News) – According to foreign media reports, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures closed higher on Wednesday, with the benchmark contract rising by about 2%, mainly reflecting the strength of Brent crude oil futures and the potential reduction in U.S. corn planting area this spring. A research report released by Bank of America indicates that the agricultural futures market has not yet fully felt the full impact of the turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz. The ripple effect caused by the sharp fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices has begun to transmit to the cost side of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers and fuels. If fertilizer prices remain high and supply tightens, the expected yield of major crops such as U.S. corn may face severe challenges. According to a survey of farmers conducted by Allendale, the U.S. corn planting area this year is expected to be approximately 93.68 million acres, a decrease of 5.12 million acres from last year, and also lower than the 94 million acres predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture at a forum last month.

S&P 500 Recovers to Show Signs of Life Again

Florala Chen

Jul 11, 2022 15:39

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The S&P 500 initially declined during the week but found sufficient support close to the 3750 level to rebound once again, exactly as it did the week before.

Weekly Technical Analysis for the S&P 500

The S&P 500 has seen another tumultuous week, but after initially falling, it is likely to finish up looking pretty favorable. This is a clear reference to what we had seen the week before, indicating that, if we can generate some kind of momentum, we still have a long way to go. That just indicates that we are overdue for a rebound; it doesn't imply that the trend has altered. At this point, I believe that the market may very likely attempt to test the 4000 level before turning aggressively for the 4200 level.


Having said that, a market break over the 4200 level would be a significant development, demonstrating tremendous momentum and maybe indicating that the market was prepared to alter the general direction. On the other side, if we were to reverse course and break below the 3650 level, it's probable that the market might crash. There are many inflationary worries out there, and profit projections are also expected to be revised downward, so I believe there is still a lot of noise above that might be problematic.


You can see from this chart that there has been a substantial retreat over the last several months, but it seems that we are attempting to take a small position in this space. There are many uncertainties on whether or not the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy as forcefully as previously believed, which naturally leads to many uncertainties.

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