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June 17th - LBBW analysts noted in a report that investors will be paying particular attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warshs first press conference on Wednesday. As this is the new chairmans debut, "his communication will be the focus of market participants," the analysts said, adding, "He is expected to adopt a more restrained communication strategy." The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% this month.1. UBS: There is still insufficient confidence in Warshs policy stance, and his monetary policy response remains uncertain. Whether Warsh is hawkish or dovish, both could pose market pricing risks. 2. ANZ: Warsh has demonstrated a strong willingness to reform, and his reform ideas are expected to be revealed at the press conference. More detailed information may be provided in his opening speech at the Jackson Hole symposium in August. 3. Bank of America: Warsh is expected to be dovish in his press conference. We believe he will say that the Iranian conflict does not affect underlying inflation (it only has a one-off impact on price levels), therefore the Fed should "ignore" it, especially after recent news of a solution to the conflict. 4. Capital Economics: He may be asked about his views on interest rates. The risk to the market is that Warshs remarks may be more hawkish than expected—either due to a communication mishap or simply because his current stance is not as dovish as it was when he was vying for Trumps presidential nomination. 5. Yale University: If Warsh relies too heavily on soft logic such as "AI deflation" while ignoring hard data, the Fed may repeat the mistake of "temporary inflation." 6. Nordea Bank: Warsh is expected to lean towards a more neutral or even slightly hawkish stance to enhance his credibility. Any changes in his communication will be indicative rather than immediate. 7. BNY Mellon: Warsh has consistently been critical of forward guidance and may use this press conference (or limit the number of press conferences) to indicate how communication policy will change during his tenure. 8. MFS Investment Management: Given Warshs views on technological productivity, he may make dovish remarks. However, this is unlikely, as such comments at this time would damage his hawkish image.On Wednesday, June 17, the German DAX 30 index opened down 98.71 points, or 0.40%, at 24,816.05; the UK FTSE 100 index opened down 1.78 points, or 0.02%, at 10,492.43; and the French CAC 40 index opened down 18.68 points, or 0.22%, at 8,428.59. The Stoxx 50 index opened down 5.52 points, or 0.09%, at 6251.90 on Wednesday, June 17; the Spanish IBEX 35 index opened down 0.89 points, or 0.00%, at 19162.71 on Wednesday, June 17; and the Italian FTSE MIB index opened down 21.06 points, or 0.04%, at 52411.50 on Wednesday, June 17.ECB Governing Council member Simkus: Controlling inflation expectations is very important.June 17 – Mobileye (MBLY.O) announced today plans to further expand its robotaxi business, extending from providing autonomous driving technology to operating its own autonomous ride-hailing services. The new project is planned to launch in a U.S. city in 2027, marking a significant upgrade to Mobileyes strategy.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Futures Tests the Low Again

Skylar Shaw

May 20, 2022 09:38

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 continues to give traders issues throughout the globe, as there is a lot of selling pressure. While we did rebound off the recent lows early on, there's nothing on this chart to indicate we won't do so again. Indeed, given the enormous candlestick that developed throughout the day on Wednesday, I would expect it. That demonstrates genuine dread, and to be honest, we're still a long way from surrender. As long as that is the case, I think the S&P 500 is a market you should be trying to sell on rallies.


In terms of the US consumer, earnings calls have been fairly alarming, and this is something that a lot of people will be paying attention to. It's difficult to picture the S&P 500 taking off to the upside as long as it appears that the US consumer is beginning to collapse. Granted, it may outperform many of its global competitors, but that is not guarantee that it will be beneficial. You don't want to be in the "less awful" category.


To be honest, I wouldn't have anything to do with the stock market right now; it's much too unpredictable and certainly too hazardous. We'd have to clear the 4150 level at the very least to consider this a market reversal, which doesn't seem to be happening anytime soon. As a result, I think the market is one in which you, like many other players, will continue to fade rallies.

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