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On September 22, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated on Monday that the Fed may need to further raise interest rates to curb inflation due to strong demand and the impact of commodity prices extending beyond the oil sector. He emphasized that the Fed should act sooner rather than later. Mussaleem stated, “Persistent demand and recurring supply pressures continue to exacerbate inflation risks. I believe that without further policy measures to curb inflation, it is likely that in 18 months, inflation will be significantly higher than our 2% target, rather than reaching it. I believe policy must impose meaningful constraints on inflation. This would allow the Fed to achieve its inflation target in about a year and a half, thus allowing time for tightening to have an impact on the economy.” He added, “Earlier, gradual tightening is more appropriate and less shocking to the economy than later, larger, and potentially more abrupt policy moves.” Mussaleem pointed out that inflation “is not a risk; it already exists,” and even after excluding the effects of oil and other supply-related factors, the underlying inflation rate could still be several percentage points higher than the Fed’s target and is “heading in the wrong direction.”As of the 2:30 closing bell, the main Shanghai gold futures contract fell 0.39%, the main Shanghai silver futures contract fell 0.70%, and the main SC crude oil futures contract fell 2.26%.Federal Reserves Mussalim: Business contacts indicated they plan to raise prices to "close to 3%".Federal Reserve Chairman Mossallem: Rate hikes are best done "earlier and gradually," rather than "delayed and drastic."Federal Reserves Mussalim: The labor market remains stable near full employment and is not a source of inflationary pressures.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 Breaks Through the 200 Day EMA

Cory Russell

Aug 11, 2022 12:08

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After a CPI number that was lower than expected, the S&P 500 has increased. Wall Street is already operating at full throttle in anticipation of receiving sugar from the Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

During the trading session in the E-mini futures market, the S&P 500 broke above the 200 Day EMA, signaling a strong danger to break out above the 4200 level. If we do, then opens the door to a potential move to the 4300 level, which is something that the momentum makes extremely possible.


Having said that, you must exercise caution since there are several crosscurrents present right now. I believe it will be extremely tough to break above the 4300 level, therefore you must think about volatility through the lens of the VIX.


It would be a really bad indicator and may drive this market back down if we did break down below the candlestick's bottom for the impulsive candlestick that we made on Wednesday. There is little doubt that we are reaching a significant turning point on the charts. The market's immediate response to the CPI statistic was favorable, but the issue now is if it can maintain its upward momentum and surge any more. The next fight may occur around level 4300, in my opinion, since it is more probable than not at this time.


Even though the CPI figure was lower than expected, it is still almost three and a half times what the Federal Reserve likes to see, so prepare for very high volatility. In other words, it will probably only take a short while before someone on the Federal Reserve Board attempts to calm things down.

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