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February 15th - Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that key indicators of the U.S. economy are pointing in the same positive direction: inflation is declining, the labor market remains strong, and economic growth is solid. This is not a definitive conclusion, but it represents the closest the U.S. economy has ever come to a soft landing (i.e., curbing inflation while avoiding a recession). Just four years ago, many economists thought this was impossible. Now, the scenario of the U.S. economy bringing inflation back to the Feds 2% target without falling into recession is once again credible. However, even without oxygen masks, its too early to unfasten the seatbelts. The Feds preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE annual rate, is currently close to 3%, and many forecasters expect little progress in inflation this year as tariff-related price increases spread further. Meanwhile, the labor market may not be as robust as last weeks report suggested. Payden & Rygels chief economist, Jeffrey Cleveland, stated that objectively speaking, the labor market has been weak, and the unemployment rate is more likely to rise than fall this year.February 15th - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated during a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday that current market developments indicate investors are interested in allocating more capital to Europe. Creating incentives for European investment is a better approach than using taxes to prevent capital outflows. Lagarde believes that US President Trumps disruptive trade policies serve as a "spur" for Europe to accelerate economic reforms. Beyond economic challenges, this has also brought European leaders closer together. She stated that the EUs €90 billion ($107 billion) support package for Ukraine demonstrates that the union can drive meaningful decision-making even if not all member states support an agreement.U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: The United States has taken note of reports from various countries assessing the poisoning of prominent Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. The United States does not question this assessment, nor is there any reason to question it.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio believes that President Trumps aide Witkov and Trumps son-in-law Kushner are "at this moment" traveling to Iran for an important meeting on Iran.Slovak Prime Minister: Hopes to sign an agreement with Westinghouse Electric Company next year to lead the construction of a new nuclear power plant.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – Stock Market Drifts

Eric Stanberg

Dec 20, 2022 18:05

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Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

On Monday throughout the day, the S&P 500 E-mini contract attempted to rise at first but rapidly gave up gains. As of right now, it seems like there will be a lot of negative pressure, which might allow us to go as low as the 3800 mark. Looking at this chart, it is a region where it has historically been loud, so don't be at all surprised to see it behave that way once again. You're talking about 3750 being the goal if we break down below the 3800 mark.


On the other side, if we reverse course and break above the 50-Day EMA, which is now hovering around the 3928 level, we may then move our attention to the 4000 level above, which is just below the 200-Day EMA. Alternately, you can observe that we have been trading in an expanding wedge or what is known as a "megaphone pattern," which often signals the impending start of an explosive surge in either direction. The Federal Reserve has restated its aim to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, thus everything now looks to be heading downward.


Corporate profits will continue to decline as the globe enters a recession, which should, in principle, bring the market down with it. It said, I wouldn't place too much stock in that since you never know what risk Wall Street is ready to accept at any particular time. Remember that unstable situations could result in a lot of noise on arbitrary headlines.

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