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US judge: Bank of America (BAC.N) has reached a "settlement in principle" with the civil lawsuit brought by the plaintiffs in the Jeffrey Epstein case.March 16 – Following last weeks agreement to release a record amount of emergency oil reserves, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that it could provide even more reserves if needed. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, "The IEAs swift action has had a stabilizing effect on the market. However, while our inventory releases are currently providing a buffer, this is not a long-term solution." Birol emphasized that for the oil and gas industry, "the most important thing" is to restore normal passage through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which has been disrupted by the war in the Middle East. He stated that more oil is flowing into Asian markets, which are most dependent on oil supplies from the Middle East.The SC crude oil futures contract narrowed its losses to 4.26%, currently trading at 737.7 yuan per barrel, after previously falling by more than 7%.The BBC filed a motion in a Florida federal court on Monday seeking to dismiss US President Donald Trumps $10 billion defamation lawsuit.On March 16th, a $10 million profit was realized from an options trade targeting short-term interest rates, driven by this months sharp rise in oil prices and a downward revision of market expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve. This bet, placed in January in the form of options related to the overnight funding rate, which is closely correlated with the Feds policy direction, was reflected in the CME Groups positioning data covering Fridays trading, released Monday. The data showed that selling of the options at the end of last week matched the profit-taking on the position. This bet, which existed before the outbreak of war in the Middle East, indicated that the Feds interest rates would be higher by mid-2028 than was generally expected in January. The bet turned profitable last week as the conflict caused oil prices to rise to their highest level since 2022, raising concerns about inflation and prompting traders to expect the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

S&P 500 Gains 4.5% As Traders Bet The Fed Will Raise Rates By 50 Bps In December

Skylar Shaw

Nov 11, 2022 16:51



As the inflation rate drops to 7.7%, tech stocks rise.


As a result of traders' reactions to the U.S. inflation reports, which showed that the inflation rate decreased from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October, the S&P 500 is up 4.5%. The heavily tech-focused NASDAQ Composite is up 6%.


Data on inflation gave today's international markets a lot of assistance. Additionally, Fed officials gave stock market-friendly hints that the Fed would scale down rate increases.


The rise is being driven by tech stocks. Amazon and NVIDIA are up 12%. Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft are all up 6%.


As a less aggressive Fed policy would help the entire market, it is not surprising that the rally is widespread and that all market categories are increasing. As traders concentrate on riskier bets, consumer defensive stocks underperform the market.


The Michigan Consumer Sentiment report, which will be the focus of traders tomorrow, is anticipated to reveal a decline in consumer sentiment from 59.9 in October to 59.5 in December. Since today's surge has been so robust, traders will probably need a solid report to keep the recovery going. If Consumer Sentiment falls short of forecasts, traders may seek to lock in some profits before the weekend.


S&P 500 is currently probing the resistance at 3920 after managing to stabilize above the 3900 mark. RSI is still in the moderate range despite the strong rally, so there is still plenty of room for further upward momentum to develop should the proper catalysts materialize.


The S&P 500 will move toward the next resistance level at 3960 if it settles above the 3920 mark. A rise above this point will allow for the testing of the 4000 level resistance. The next resistance level at 4015 will be reached by the S&P 500 if it rises above 4000.


The S&P 500's closest support level is found at 3885 on the support side. The S&P 500 will move toward the next support at 3835 if it drops below this level. The S&P 500 may receive significant support in the 3815–3835 range because the 50 EMA is situated at 3815.

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