S&P 500 Futures Break Above the 50 Day EMA

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

The S&P 500 futures market has broken over the 50-day exponential moving average, and it seems that it is attempting to reach the 4500 level. The 4500 level has a psychological effect, but we've cut through it enough times that I don't believe it'll be a "brick wall." We might be looking at a possible "inverse head and shoulders" if we break above that level and start looking at the 4600 level. 

In principle, it is a reach, but maybe Wall Street is baking the concept that the Federal Reserve will not be able to hike interest rates as rapidly as they had expected. It's difficult to say because, very simply, Wall Street will invent any excuse to purchase stocks.

On the downside, a break below the 4400 level would very certainly open the door to a move to the 4300 level, followed by the 4100 level. The S&P 500's decline might be due to inflation, the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes, or just the reality that we are very surely entering a recession.

It's difficult to say since Wall Street now has an entire generation of traders who have only dealt in high-liquidity markets. It's difficult to say what would happen if they focused on economic fundamentals since they've never had to. As things stand today, it seems that 4500 will be the deciding factor in whether or not we can continue to rise.