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On June 8th, Macquarie Groups Head of Economics, David Doyle, stated that following Fridays strong non-farm payroll report, the bank maintained its baseline forecast for the Federal Reserves interest rate path. He said, "As we have been emphasizing for some time, we believe the Feds next move will be a rate hike, with a baseline timeframe of the first quarter of 2027." The risk to this forecast has shifted to the possibility of an earlier rate hike, with the market now pricing in a rate hike in the fourth quarter of 2026. In the coming weeks, the Feds rhetoric is likely to continue shifting from favoring rate cuts to favoring rate hikes.Germanys manufacturing orders, adjusted for working days, rose 1.6% year-on-year in April, compared with 6.30% in the previous month.Germanys seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders fell 3.8% month-on-month in April, compared with an expected decline of 2% and a previous reading of 5.00%.June 8th - Allianz Chief Economist El-Erian stated that OPEC+ has increased its production by 188,000 barrels per day, but analysts believe the vast majority of this is "paper production," as the increased oil is unlikely to actually enter the market due to the ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, oil prices rose 5% this morning. Despite Trumps statements that a peace agreement is imminent and that Israel must align with US directives, traders are reacting to the escalating military tensions between Iran and Israel, as well as Israels expanding attacks on Lebanon.June 8th - Economists Pia Fromet and Markus Wieden of Nordea Bank in Sweden stated in a report that the European Central Bank (ECB) may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points at its meeting this Thursday. The inflationary risks from rising energy prices will likely lead the central bank to take preemptive rate hikes, as the indirect and second-round inflation effects have not yet manifested in the data. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to spend considerable time at the press conference discussing the latest staff forecasts and risk assessment. Uncertainty will be a focal point, supporting a wait-and-see approach. The ECB is not expected to make any pre-commitments to further rate hikes.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Contract Sits on 50-Day EMA

Alice Wang

Dec 13, 2022 17:28


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Since a few days ago, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been trading on the 50-Day, and Monday was no exception. We are currently squeezed between the 200-Day EMA above and the 50-Day EMA below. You can see from this chart that the 50-Day EMA might enter the picture and provide some support, but we still need to get through a few big announcements in the coming days.


The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will be the first one. Inflation is monitored closely by the central bankers in the United States, making it a highly significant indicator. Following that, we have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly have an impact of its own. The ECB must now be taken into consideration, even if it will have less of an impact than the Fed at this stage.


We must now begin to worry about liquidity at this stage. Fund managers may use some window dressing at the end of the year to attempt to convince all of their customers that they possess the proper assets, but there will also be buyback blackouts, which will prevent businesses from repurchasing their own stock. In that case, a significant stock buyer may have just left.


Because of this, I believe that the possibility of a move lower than higher is greater than it is for a move higher. However, as of right now, I don't believe that there will be a significant move between now and New Year's Day.

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