S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Contract Sits on 50-Day EMA

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Since a few days ago, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been trading on the 50-Day, and Monday was no exception. We are currently squeezed between the 200-Day EMA above and the 50-Day EMA below. You can see from this chart that the 50-Day EMA might enter the picture and provide some support, but we still need to get through a few big announcements in the coming days.

The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will be the first one. Inflation is monitored closely by the central bankers in the United States, making it a highly significant indicator. Following that, we have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly have an impact of its own. The ECB must now be taken into consideration, even if it will have less of an impact than the Fed at this stage.

We must now begin to worry about liquidity at this stage. Fund managers may use some window dressing at the end of the year to attempt to convince all of their customers that they possess the proper assets, but there will also be buyback blackouts, which will prevent businesses from repurchasing their own stock. In that case, a significant stock buyer may have just left.

Because of this, I believe that the possibility of a move lower than higher is greater than it is for a move higher. However, as of right now, I don't believe that there will be a significant move between now and New Year's Day.