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August 28th - A Reuters poll shows that the vast majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise interest rates for the second consecutive time next Wednesday, followed by another rate hike next quarter. The RBNZ implemented its first rate hike in over three years last month and hinted at further tightening of monetary policy to push inflation back to its target range of 1%-3%. Official data released subsequently showed that inflation rose to 4.1% last quarter, a two-and-a-half-year high. Economists expect inflation to remain within the target range this year, partly due to upward pressure on energy prices. The survey shows that about 90% of the 31 economists surveyed expect the RBNZ to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% next Wednesday. HSBCs chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, Paul Bloxham, said, "The main reason is that inflation is above target." Two-thirds of economists expect the RBNZ to raise rates by at least 25 basis points again next quarter, with a median forecast of 3.00% for the official cash rate at year-end.A Reuters poll shows that more than two-thirds of forecasters expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates at least once more after September, with the cash rate expected to reach 3.00% or higher by the end of the year.A Reuters poll showed that 27 out of 31 economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on September 2.On August 28, Vice Minister of Commerce Yan Dong stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that China will adhere to innovation-driven development, enhance the international competitiveness of productive services, promote the export of services leveraging manufacturing advantages such as R&D, design, testing, maintenance, and supply chain logistics, and promote the integrated development of service trade and high-end manufacturing. The Ministry will also stimulate the export potential of consumer services, expand inbound consumption, promote the improvement of cultural trade quality and efficiency, and better leverage digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and cloud computing to empower the development of service trade. Furthermore, China will accelerate the construction of national service trade innovation and development demonstration zones, steadily and orderly promote the expansion of market access and opening-up areas with a focus on the service industry, improve the negative list management system for cross-border service trade, and remove barriers to cross-border service trade.According to Nikkei Asia: South Koreas Ministry of National Defense announced that Japan, South Korea, and the United States will hold the annual "Freedom Blade" trilateral defense exercise from September 7 to 11 in waters near Jeju Island in southern South Korea.

S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 E-mini Contract Sits on 50-Day EMA

Alice Wang

Dec 13, 2022 17:28


Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Since a few days ago, the S&P 500 E-mini contract has been trading on the 50-Day, and Monday was no exception. We are currently squeezed between the 200-Day EMA above and the 50-Day EMA below. You can see from this chart that the 50-Day EMA might enter the picture and provide some support, but we still need to get through a few big announcements in the coming days.


The Consumer Price Index, which will be released on Tuesday, will be the first one. Inflation is monitored closely by the central bankers in the United States, making it a highly significant indicator. Following that, we have the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, which will undoubtedly have an impact of its own. The ECB must now be taken into consideration, even if it will have less of an impact than the Fed at this stage.


We must now begin to worry about liquidity at this stage. Fund managers may use some window dressing at the end of the year to attempt to convince all of their customers that they possess the proper assets, but there will also be buyback blackouts, which will prevent businesses from repurchasing their own stock. In that case, a significant stock buyer may have just left.


Because of this, I believe that the possibility of a move lower than higher is greater than it is for a move higher. However, as of right now, I don't believe that there will be a significant move between now and New Year's Day.