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The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reversed its previous decision to lay off staff at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), restoring hundreds of related positions.According to the Wall Street Journal, six federal prosecutors in Minnesota have resigned in connection with the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) shooting investigation.On January 14th, it was reported that on January 10th, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE), Fudan University, and the National Meteorological Information Center signed a tripartite cooperation framework agreement and held a symposium. Representatives from the three parties reached an important consensus on promoting innovative practices in "meteorology × finance" and developing weather-related derivatives. A GFE representative stated that as a crucial venue for risk management, the futures markets introduction of weather derivatives that meet market needs is of significant practical importance in helping weather-sensitive enterprises, such as those in the new energy sector, mitigate weather volatility risks and serve the development of new productive forces. As a vital national financial infrastructure, the GFE will leverage its experience in green innovation and development, deepen practical cooperation with all parties, actively promote the research and application of weather derivatives, and provide strong support for meteorological risk management and the construction of a green finance system.1. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 49,191.99 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.19% to 6,963.74 points, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1% to 23,709.87 points. Salesforce fell more than 7%, and Visa fell more than 4%, leading the decline in the Dow Jones. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index fell 0.22%, with Facebook and Amazon falling more than 1%. Chinese concept stocks generally declined, with Brain Regeneration falling more than 26% and Pony.ai falling more than 9%. Concerns surrounding the independence of the Federal Reserve remain. 2. European stock indices closed mixed. Germanys DAX rose 0.06% to 25,420.66 points, driven by gains in defense stocks amid geopolitical tensions; Frances CAC40 fell 0.14% to 8,347.2 points, with support from bank stocks partially offsetting weakness in other sectors; the UKs FTSE 100 fell 0.03% to 10,137.35 points, dragged down by energy and financial sectors, reflecting market concerns about the UKs economic outlook. 3. US Treasury yields were mixed. The 2-year Treasury yield fell 0.19 basis points to 3.530%, the 3-year yield rose 0.12 basis points to 3.591%, the 5-year yield fell 0.17 basis points to 3.752%, the 10-year yield rose 0.40 basis points to 4.179%, and the 30-year yield rose 0.82 basis points to 4.837%. 3. International precious metals futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce. Although geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and market uncertainty provided support for gold prices, signals from Federal Reserve officials that they would not cut interest rates for the time being suppressed trading based on expectations of a rate cut, leading to a slight decline in gold futures for the day. 4. The main WTI crude oil contract closed up 2.69% at $61.1 per barrel; the main Brent crude oil contract rose 2.43% to $65.42 per barrel. 5. London base metals traded mixed. LME tin rose 2.46% to $49,145.0/ton, LME aluminum rose 0.36% to $3,196.0/ton, LME lead rose 0.34% to $2,060.0/ton, LME copper fell 0.40% to $13,156.5/ton, LME zinc fell 0.44% to $3,202.0/ton, and LME nickel fell 1.61% to $17,600.0/ton.Eli Lilly (LLY.N) CEO: We need to know the number of patients receiving obesity drugs under the US Medicare drug plan, as well as the number of out-of-pocket patients outside the US, in order to forecast sales for 2026.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Directional Fate Tied to CPI After NFP Selloff

Steven Zhao

Oct 10, 2022 14:28

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Major indices fell quickly after an in-line US employment data as the print increased the likelihood of a 75-basis point rate rise to almost 100%, per Fed funds futures and overnight index swaps (OIS). Fed funds futures had an 87.8% likelihood of a 75-bps raise at the November 02 FOMC before the NFP. After the story hit the wires, those chances rose to 96%.


The policy-sensitive 2-year yield increased by around eight basis points during the New York trade day as Treasury rates increased throughout the curve. Given that rates are at multi-year highs, which typically drive investment into the "virtually risk-free" securities, the lack of demand for government bonds is raising concerns for some investors.


Due to a holiday on Monday, the US bond market will be closed, which might increase market volatility. The auction program for later next week includes sales of 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds totaling around $90 billion. Even if a modest desire for debt is predicted, these auctions might provide valuable knowledge. This might result in higher yields and more pressure on stocks.


However, the consumer price index (CPI) for the United States is the market event with the largest visibility for both equities dealers and the international financial system. All eyes are on Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, and what they have planned for the future. Analysts predict that core inflation, which includes food and energy, will increase from the previous year to 6.5%. It's easy to understand the CPI inflation figures in this case: A print that is higher than anticipated would probably cause the market to decline even more, supporting the Fed's stance against inflation, while a print that is lower than anticipated will probably have the opposite impact.

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