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On November 6th, in its latest interest rate decision, five members of the Bank of England voted to keep interest rates unchanged, while four voted to cut rates. This was the first time committee members explained their rationale for their decisions in a public communication. Bailey stated that "upside risks to inflation have diminished" since August, choosing to hold rates steady and await further evidence. He added that his position was based on the interest rate path projected by the "forward-looking Taylor rule," which suggests three more rate cuts over the next year. Joining Bailey in voting to keep rates unchanged were Deputy Governor Lombardelli, Chief Economist Peale, and external members Mann and Green. For the first time since joining the committee in 2023, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Bridenstine disagreed with Bailey, favoring a rate cut. She stated that "upside risks to inflation have diminished," while downside risks to demand were "more apparent." Deputy Governor for Markets Ramsden, along with external members Taylor and Dingela, were other members leaning towards a dovish stance.On November 6th, the Bank of England adjusted its key message regarding the interest rate outlook. In its previous statement, the Bank of England considered a "gradual and cautious approach" to interest rate cuts appropriate, but now it states: "Interest rates are likely to continue to decline gradually if the decline in inflation continues." The Bank of Englands decision to keep interest rates unchanged was not unexpected for investors. Wednesdays interest rate futures pricing suggested only a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis point cut. However, the 5-4 vote, and signs that Bailey might soon change his stance, could boost bets on a rate cut at the Bank of Englands next meeting in mid-December. Investors on Wednesday estimated a roughly 60% chance of a rate cut next month. The Bank of England also released, for the first time, summaries of the views of individual members of the Monetary Policy Committee, as part of its forecasting process reform. The bank expects economic growth of 1.5% this year, up from its previous forecast of 1.25%, and 1.2% in 2026, roughly unchanged from its August forecast.According to institutional data and Reuters calculations, Russias marine diesel exports fell 4% month-on-month in October.November 6th - Zhijie Autos year-end purchase tax subsidy has been extended. Customers who place a large order for the Zhijie R7 or Zhijie New S7 and confirm their delivery plan before 24:00 on December 1, 2025, can enjoy a year-end purchase tax subsidy of up to 15,000 yuan.Data shows that diesel shipments from the Baltic port of Primorsk in October decreased by 6% compared to September.

S&P 500 Continues to Threaten a Breakout

Alice Wang

Jul 20, 2022 14:50

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As we continue to pose a serious danger of a large breakthrough, the S&P 500 has surged pretty considerably throughout Tuesday's trading session.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500

Due to the continued loud behavior, the S&P 500 has shown its bullishness throughout Tuesday's trading session. Given that the 3900 region runs all the way to 3950, this market will likely continue to be highly loud. Additionally, the 50 Day EMA is also nearing this region, and earnings season is already underway. Or, to put it another way, it's a jumble of issues waiting to happen.


Short-sellers will almost certainly seize on signs of tiredness because, to be honest, the economics does not indicate that this market should rise. Additionally, there are significant issues with liquidity, so you must pay great attention to it as well. Even if the economy does have some impact on the stock market, it really really comes down to liquidity, thus the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy will also have some negative effects.


Wall Street has been pretending for a while now that the US economy has improved, so when it genuinely struggles, it should not come as a major surprise that they are trying to drive the market higher. Keep in mind that Wall Street and the economy are unrelated in any way. Having said that, we have a chance to advance all the way to the 4200 level if we do break over the 4000 level. I believe the trend has shifted above that point.


Alternately, if we go below the 3700 level, it's likely that we will reach the 3640 level, which previously served as a support zone.