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1. Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: Market expectations for Decembers non-farm payrolls are widely divergent, ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. FactSet generally expects 55,000, the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000, Reuters expects 60,000, and Interactive Brokers is the most optimistic, predicting 100,000. The market generally expects the unemployment rate to fall to 4.5%. 2. Economist Views: EY-Parthenons chief economist points out that even strong data could be misleading, with 2025 job growth being the weakest in decades (excluding 2020). The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union projects only 710,000 new jobs in 2025, the worst performance since 2003, excluding recessions. 3. Fed Policy Path: CME data shows a nearly 90% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January, and only about an 11% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut; the Fed meeting minutes suggest a January rate cut is unlikely. 4. Bank of Americas view: Future interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. A drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower would support holding rates steady, while a rise above 4.7% could push for a rate cut. The baseline expectation is no further rate cuts during Powells term. 5. Everbright Futures view: The US presidents proposal for a significant increase in military spending in fiscal year 2027 has raised suspicions; gold prices initially fell but then rose amid geopolitical events; the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 208,000, lower than expected, indicating a solid labor market fundamental. 6. Gain Capitals view: The market expects 60,000 new jobs, compared to 64,000 previously; the unemployment rate is expected to fall from 4.6% to 4.5% (November unemployment rate is missing); hourly wage growth may rise to 3.6%. 7. US Dollar Analysis: XS.com analysts believe the US dollar is in a fragile position; unless non-farm payroll data is stronger than expected, its upward momentum will be limited; signs of weakness in the labor market could quickly break the current temporary balance of the US dollar. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)Tesla: The Model 3 Standard Edition is now available in the UK and the Middle East.TSMC (TSM.N) is projected to generate NT$3.809 trillion in revenue by 2025, representing a 32% increase.Thai Prime Minister: Financial regulators will be responsible for overseeing matters related to gold.January 9th - According to the Financial Times, executives at US shale oil companies have warned President Trump that his plans to take over Venezuelas oil industry and drive down oil prices are pushing domestic production to the brink. An executive at a major shale oil company stated that the plan is "clearly detrimental to US producers." Texas oil executives have long been dissatisfied with Trumps insistence on lower oil prices. The plight of the Texas oil industry is deepening, with falling oil prices forcing producers to shut down drilling rigs needed to maintain production growth. Edwards, CEO of private oil producer Latigo Petroleum, stated, "The government is sending a signal that we would rather spend American money supporting Venezuelas oil industry than support our existing independent companies." Only the largest energy groups, such as Chevron, possess the hundreds of billions of dollars in capital, legal teams, and security resources required to enter Venezuela. For smaller operators, a recovery in Venezuelas oil industry would only exacerbate the markets oversupply.

Risk Management and Position Size

Lubomir Tassev

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

 

     Most investors focus on how to find or develop a good trading strategy to make profits, but ignore what should do first. What more important is the Risk Management. It is the foundation of your transaction. Only protect your assets well, you can arrange the trading process to meet head-on the market.


What to do in Risk Management?

  1. Always utilize a Stop Loss.

        Though the price moves in your forecast, it could reverse at any time. By having a stop loss means risk is controlled. Even if the price go opposite of your direction, there is only a minimal loss in this transaction.

        When you set up a stop loss, determine how much you are willing to risk on one trade. If you can risk $100per trade, set up in each position, if the price moves opposite way, you lose $100. But if the price goes your direction, you would gain a mount of money. Don't be afraid of losses, because you have a fixed way of risk control, and the price not always in the opposite way. If that does, remember to take opposite position next time.



  2. Calculate Position Size.

        Position size is how many lots are taken on a trade.

To calculate the ideal position size, first mask out the stop loss price and enter price. The price difference between the two is the basis. Calculate the risk money of your stop loss divides by the price difference, there comes the position size.


        For example, your risk money on per trade is $500. If your entry point is $50 and your stop loss is $49.5, then your risk is $0.5 per trade. To calculate how many lots you can take on your trade, divided $500 by $0.5. You can take a position size up to 1000 lots.

 

  3. setting Reasonable profit target

        It's not easy to set a reasonable profit target. Investors want to maximize their profits, but conditions don’t cooperate all the time. The suggestion is that ever if you miss more profit and close your position too early to exit out, it doesn't mean you have done a failed deal. What more important is to get out in time and ensure the success rate.

        You can see many articles on our platform in calculate profit targets. Refer to “the head and shoulder bottom pattern” or “ the double top pattern...There are many ways to set your profit target with the help of chart pattern, indicators.


Now we have the risk management, what you to carry out is the trade strategy.  See more “ trading strategy”,find out the one fit you!