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Real-time News
On April 13th, oil prices surged, US stock index futures fell, and the dollar strengthened following President Trumps order to close the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation, following the failure of the US and Iran to reach an agreement in negotiations in Pakistan, is likely to disappoint investors who increased their risk asset allocations after the two countries announced a ceasefire last week. Elias Haddad, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, stated, "Trumps announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is bound to reignite risk aversion this week." Adding to the potential volatility is the upcoming US first-quarter earnings season. Investors are eager to hear how corporate leadership views the increasing risks, including higher inflation driven by soaring oil prices and the threat of consumers beginning to cut back on spending.April 13th - "The fuel surcharge used to be adjusted monthly, but its been adjusted three times since April," a SF Express International customer service representative stated. They explained that international oil prices have fluctuated significantly since April, leading to frequent adjustments to the fuel surcharge for international express shipping. The customer service representative calculated that, based on the 39.25% fuel surcharge rate from April 6th to 12th, a 1kg parcel shipped from Beijing to the UK would have a base shipping cost of 363 yuan and a fuel surcharge of 142 yuan, totaling 505 yuan. However, starting April 13th, the total cost will increase to 508 yuan.U.S. 10-year Treasury futures fell 10 points.Monday: ① Data: US March existing home sales (annualized); China March M2 money supply (annualized). ② Events: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank hold their spring meetings until April 17; Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda visits the US from April 13 to 18 to attend the G20 and IMF meetings. Tuesday: ① Data: US March NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; US March PPI (year-on-year); US March PPI (month-on-month); Chinas March trade balance (in USD); Chinas March trade balance. ② Events: The Federal Reserve Board hosts "Strengthening the US Economy through Rural Investment: A Working Forum"; the IEA releases its monthly oil market report; the IMF releases its World Economic Outlook report. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending April 10; final French March CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone February industrial production month-on-month rate; Canadian February wholesale sales month-on-month rate; US April New York Fed Manufacturing Index, US March Import Price Index month-on-month rate, US April NAHB Housing Market Index. ② Events: The National Energy Administration releases total electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Bank of England Governor Bailey participates in a panel discussion at Columbia University; 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsby participates in a panel discussion before the Semafor 2026 World Economic Conference; Fed Governor Barr delivers opening remarks at a working forum hosted by the Fed Board of Governors; Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Barr participate in a fireside chat at the Fed Board of Governors working forum; European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech. Thursday: ① Data: Australias seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in March; Chinas first-quarter GDP year-on-year, Chinas March retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, Chinas March industrial value-added year-on-year; UKs three-month GDP month-on-month in February, UKs February manufacturing output month-on-month, UKs seasonally adjusted goods trade balance in February, UKs February industrial production month-on-month; Eurozones final March CPI year-on-year rate, Eurozones final March CPI month-on-month rate; US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US March industrial production month-on-month, US EIA natural gas storage for the week ending April 10. ② Events: Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks at the Institute of International Finance Forum; the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; Bank of England Governor Bailey speaks on global economic imbalances on the sidelines of an IMF meeting; the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the operation of the national economy; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams speaks; the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting is held. ③ Earnings Report: TSMC. Friday: ① Data: Eurozone February seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone February seasonally adjusted trade balance. Saturday: ① Data: Total number of US oil rigs for the week ending April 17. ② Event: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.April 13th - European natural gas prices surged in early Asian trading on Monday after Trump announced the U.S. would begin a full-scale blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Dutch TTF futures jumped as much as 18% to €51.30 per megawatt-hour. The failure of peace talks could trigger sharp fluctuations in the natural gas market and lead to continued tight global supply. Although most of the gas from the Middle East typically flows to Asia, continued disruption to the waterway could intensify competition for limited global liquefied natural gas resources as Europe seeks to build up its reserves before the next winter. European natural gas prices have risen by more than 50% since the U.S. and Israel first struck Iran in late February.
