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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Outlook for the Australian Dollar: RBA Action Does Little to Boost AUD

Alina Haynes

May 09, 2022 10:27

Following rate decisions from the RBA and the Federal Reserve, the Australian Dollar oscillated erratically over the course of the week. Wednesday and Thursday saw daily AUD/USD movements of more than 2 percent in opposing directions.

 

The clear message for the Australian Dollar is that it remains susceptible to fluctuations in the US Dollar.

 

The core underpinnings of the Australian economy remain robust. Public and private debt levels are quite manageable. This week's announcement of the trade balance (+9.3 billion AUD) underlined the strength of exports. The unemployment rate is at an all-time low of 4 percent, and economic growth is robust.

 

As the US Dollar adjusts to a Federal Reserve that is finally tightening monetary policy at breakneck pace to rein in skyrocketing inflation, none of this matters for the AUD/USD.

 

While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates by 25 basis points (bp) on Tuesday, as anticipated in this column over a month ago, the Federal Reserve raised the stakes by 50 bp on Wednesday.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively ruled out futures price increases of 75 basis points, causing the USD to weaken as the market had anticipated such increases.

 

The Dollar reversed course the following day after former Vice Chair Richard Clarida appeared to return to the super hawk position by stating, "Getting to neutral quickly will not be sufficient." AUD/USD was swept up in the turmoil.

 

The USD/CNY was permitted to fall to its lowest level since November 2020 prior to the weekend, which could have implications for the broader currency markets. If the currency of the second-largest economy in the world continues to erode against the US dollar, the dollar's strength may become even more widespread.

 

Consequently, the AUD/USD pair is in a vulnerable position as it trades near 18-month lows. The upcoming week will be dominated by Fed speakers. Any increase in hawkish rhetoric could lead to another jump in US Dollar strength, exposing AUD to losses.

 

The graph below illustrates the sensitivity of the Australian dollar to changes in the US dollar.

Index AUD/USD against US Dollar (DXY)

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