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Once the RBA minutes are made public, it is anticipated that AUD/NZD will once again test the day's low near 1.1110

Daniel Rogers

Oct 18, 2022 14:11

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The AUD/NZD pair lost its intraday rally after tumbling to roughly 1.1106 during the early session in Tokyo. The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) minutes' release has weighed on the cross. According to the monetary policy minutes from October, concerns about domestic and international growth risks led to the announcement of a rate increase of 25 basis points (bps), which was less than expected.

 

Additionally, RBA policymakers think the central bank has raised interest rates quickly, which could have an impact on household expenditure.

 

Australia has had the lowest unemployment rate in its economic history, at 3.5% during the past 50 years, thanks to a healthy labor market. While core inflation has remained high because of rising service prices, the drop in oil prices has put downward pressure on headline inflation.

 

Moving forward, attention will be focused on the employment statistics for Australia. The consensus predicts that the Employment Change will drop from 33.5k to 25k. At 3.5%, the unemployment rate won't change.

 

The cross declined in early Tokyo after the announcement of higher-than-expected inflation data for New Zealand. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 7.2%, which was much higher than expected but marginally lower than the 7.3% reported in the prior report. While the quarterly inflation rate came in at 2.2%, exceeding both the 1.6% estimate and the 1.7% reading from the previous quarter, it was below the 1.7% figure from the previous quarter.

 

Given that price pressures have not abated as anticipated, it is now more likely that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will continue to raise interest rates at the current pace. 3.5% is the Official Cash Rate (OCR).


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