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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Oil Prices Surge by $5 A Barrel As EU Inches Closer to Imposing A Ban on Russian Oil

Aria Thomas

May 05, 2022 09:46

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Oil prices spiked Wednesday after the European Union, the world's largest trade bloc, announced intentions to phase out Russian oil imports, sparking concerns about further market tightening as those nations seek enough supply.


Following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, crude benchmarks have steadily increased in price over the last two months. Until far, the European Union has been unwilling to completely phase out Russian oil and gas imports, and its current plans do not include a blanket ban on all EU members.


Europe imports around 3.5 million barrels of Russian oil and petroleum products per day and is also reliant on Moscow's gas supply.


"Inventories are extremely low, and against this backdrop, there are a lot of worries about how (Europe) can compensate for this restriction," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.


Brent crude futures finished at $110.14 a barrel, up $5.17, or 4.9 percent. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $107.81 a barrel, up $5.40, or 5.3 percent, from the previous day's close.


President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen recommended a phased oil embargo against Russia on Wednesday, as well as penalizing Russia's central bank.


Von der Leyen stated that the Commission's proposals include phasing out Russian crude oil supply within six months and refined products by the end of 2022. Additionally, she committed to mitigate the move's impact on European economy.


Hungary and Slovakia, on the other hand, will be permitted to continue purchasing Russian crude oil under current contracts until the end of 2023, an EU source told Reuters.


Russia may compensate for the loss of a major customer by exporting oil to other importers such as India and China. Neither country has ceased purchasing goods from Moscow.


Needs for significantly increased supplies are unlikely to be fulfilled at Thursday's Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers conference. OPEC+ is anticipated to follow through on its plan to gradually increase monthly production.


According to the US Energy Information Administration, oil stockpiles increased marginally last week. Stocks increased by 1.2 million barrels as the US increased the amount of crude released from its strategic reserves.


Fuel stocks declined in part as a result of increased exports of products following Russia's invasion, as importers sought alternative suppliers.


The markets have largely recovered from the Federal Reserve's announcement that it would raise interest rates by a half-point in an attempt to rein in growing inflation.


"Given the market's performance prior to the announcement, I believe (the Fed's decision) was a foregone conclusion," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

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