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June 11th - Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, stated that the market widely expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates at its meeting tonight. The importance of this meeting lies not only in the interest rate decision itself, but also in ECB President Lagardes articulation of future policy direction. The market will closely watch how the ECB defines the June rate adjustment – whether it will be seen as a one-off adjustment or the start of a broader tightening cycle. If the ECB does not rule out further rate hikes, the euro may find support, especially given the markets perception of a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. A hawkish stance from the ECB would improve the interest rate differential between the euro and currencies of central banks more cautious in tightening. However, if investors believe that tightening will exacerbate Europes already fragile economic growth prospects, the euros upside potential may be limited.June 11th - TD Securities analysts stated that the European Central Bank (ECB) appears poised to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% due to accelerating inflation and the potential for energy-related pressures to spill over into core and service prices. The market seems to view the June rate hike as not a one-off move, but rather the beginning of a limited tightening policy, with a roughly 65% probability of another rate hike in September and the possibility of action by December already fully priced in. Given the widespread inflation concerns, we believe this view is reasonable: rising energy costs are pushing up overall inflation, and these pressures could ripple through service prices, wages, and expectations. Therefore, if upcoming data confirms that underlying inflation is not easing quickly enough, the likelihood of another rate hike in September is high.Nasdaq 100 futures extended gains to 1%, Dow Jones futures rose 0.66%, and S&P 500 futures gained 0.74%.German Chancellor Merz: Proposing Ukraines accession to the EU means that Ukraine will participate in EU Council meetings and Ministerial Council meetings, but Ukraine will not have voting rights.Italian Prime Minister: Europe should be prepared to impose new sanctions on Iran if it continues to “go down the wrong path.”

Oil Prices Extend Gains on Optimism Regarding Chinese Demand

Skylar Williams

Nov 14, 2022 15:07

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China dropped parts of its strict COVID-19 protocols, boosting optimism for a resurgence in economic activity and demand in the world's top petroleum importer.


Brent crude futures rose 87 cents, or 0.9%, to $96.86 a barrel as of 00:41 GMT on Saturday.


Futures for U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were up 80 cents, or 0.9%, at $89.76 per barrel.


China's National Health Commission changed COVID prevention and control techniques on Friday. This weekend, COVID instances rose in China.


"This policy change will help mitigate adverse expectations of a sustained restricted approach to onshore activity," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes. "But it does not alleviate the immediate demand impact from existing lockdowns."


The limitations were eased by reducing quarantine periods for close contacts of cases and inbound travelers by two days and eliminating a penalty for airlines that carried ill passengers.


"The latest loosening of quarantine regulations is a step in the right direction," ING stated, "but the market will likely need additional easing if this optimism is to be sustained."


In December, Chinese refiners requested less oil from the world's top oil supplier, Saudi Arabia.


Separately, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said India can buy as much Russian oil as it wants, even at prices above a G7-imposed price restriction, as long as it avoids Western insurance, finance, and maritime services.


Stronger dollar capped oil price hikes.


Christopher Waller, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, said bad economic data would be needed to pause interest rate hikes that have boosted the dollar and lowered commodity prices.


Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet for the first time since Biden's inauguration in Bali before the G20 summit.