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JPMorgan Chase: The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2026, compared with previous forecasts that interest rates would remain unchanged this year.July 30th - On Thursday, demand at the auction of Japanese two-year government bonds was lower than the 12-month average, as the market widely anticipated a tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan. The subscription multiple was 3.63, compared to 4.82 at the previous auction, and the 12-month average is 3.81. Another sign of weak investor interest was the tail spread (the difference between the average bid and the minimum acceptable bid) at 0.007, compared to 0.005 last month. Recently, yields on short-term Japanese government bonds, which are more sensitive to monetary policy, have risen due to increased oil prices caused by tensions in the Middle East and heightened concerns about fuel inflation. The two-year yield has now risen to 1.47%, close to the high of 1.52% reached earlier this month. This further increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.On July 30th, according to foreign media reports, Malaysian palm oil futures fell slightly on Thursday, marking their third decline in four trading days, mainly dragged down by weaker prices of competing edible oils and crude oil. The benchmark October palm oil contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell 16 ringgit, or 0.34%, to 4,648 ringgit per tonne (approximately US$1,137.82) in early trading. Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and the US-Iran conflict spreading beyond major fronts, oil tankers continued to leave the region, causing oil prices to give back some of their gains. Weaker crude oil futures reduced the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel feedstock. The ringgit strengthened slightly by 0.07% against the US dollar, making it slightly more expensive for buyers holding foreign currency to purchase the commodity. According to documents from the Indonesian Ministry of Energy, the country has increased its 2026 biodiesel quota using palm oil as a feedstock to 16.75 million kiloliters to meet the increased demand from the B50 biodiesel blending policy launched earlier this month.Shunichi Suzuki, Secretary-General of the Democratic Party of Japan: The goal is to submit a tax reduction bill during the autumn Diet session.The bid-to-cover ratio for Japans 2-year government bonds was 3.63, lower than the 4.82 achieved in the previous issuance in June.

Oil Prices Climb As The EU Bans Most Russian Oil Imports

Charlie Brooks

May 31, 2022 11:42

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Oil prices increased on Tuesday as the European Union (EU) agreed to reduce its oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, fueling fears of a tightening market already stressed for supply due to rising demand ahead of the peak summer driving season in the United States and Europe.


At 00:54 GMT, Brent crude futures for July, whose contract expires on Tuesday, rose 33 cents to $122.50 a barrel. The more popular August contract increased 33 cents to $117.93.


Futures contracts for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were trading at $117.31 a barrel, an increase of $2.24 from Friday's closing. Due to a U.S. holiday, there was no settlement on Monday.


European Union leaders agreed in principle to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90 percent by the end of 2022, breaking a stalemate with Hungary over the bloc's heaviest sanction against Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine three months ago.


Due to the fact that the market has already factored in the supply limits, according to some analysts, oil price improvements may be modest.


SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes told Reuters that the market had "already factored in EU self-sanction and much less Russian oil moving to Europe this year"


Innes continued, "I believe the market is pricing in some more Asia demand via China; nevertheless, the glaring issues are the soaring gasoline prices at the pump, which could lead to some demand destruction over the driving season."


Following the removal of COVID-19 restrictions, China's demand is anticipated to increase. Shanghai has announced the end of its two-month lockdown and will permit the vast majority of residents in China's largest metropolis to leave their homes and drive cars beginning Wednesday.


On the production side, OPEC+ is expected to adhere to its agreement from last year at its meeting on Thursday, with a moderate July output rise of 432,000 barrels per day, according to six sources from OPEC+. This is in response to Western calls for a more rapid increase to curb skyrocketing prices.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, argue that the oil market is in equilibrium and that recent price increases are unrelated to underlying fundamentals.


In 2022, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic reached their highest level in more than a decade and are up more than 55 percent so far in 2022.

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