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February 19th - Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that the Fed meeting minutes showed more officials were less concerned about the labor market, while concerns about inflation increased. The minutes stated that most officials cautioned that progress in reducing inflation "may be slower and more uneven than generally expected." They considered the risk of inflation persistently above the Feds 2% target "significant." Similarly, according to the minutes, Fed staff described a more persistent, above-target inflation range as "a significant risk." Data released after the January meeting may embolden officials who believe there is no need to rush further rate cuts, and the market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady again at next months meeting. Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers added 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%, easing concerns about a more severe slowdown in the labor market. Nevertheless, annual revised data showed a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past year.Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: January food price surge may be attributed to weather.WTI crude oil surged 5% intraday, currently trading at $65.42 per barrel.February 19th - On February 18th local time, Russia, the United States, and Ukraine responded to the latest round of trilateral talks in Geneva. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the latest round of trilateral contact between the US, Russia, and Ukraine "made meaningful progress," and all parties agreed to continue negotiations. However, Levitt also stated that the US continues to sell weapons to its NATO allies for its own defense. Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff and member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, Budanov, posted on his official social media platform on the 18th that another round of negotiations in Geneva had concluded, and while the dialogue was difficult, it was very important. He stated that the Ukrainian team is prepared to continue negotiations in the near future. Ukraine will persevere. Ukrainian sources stated that the military group made progress on coordinating procedural issues. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated on the evening of the 18th that the Geneva negotiations that day lasted shorter than the first day, but this did not mean there was no progress; the Russian delegation participating in the Geneva negotiations would report to President Putin immediately.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The sanctions imposed on Moscow have hindered the development of good economic and trade relations between the United States and Russia."

Oil Maintains Stability as Traders Assess Ukraine's Fallout and China's Outbreak

Charlie Brooks

Apr 27, 2022 09:33

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West Texas Intermediate futures rose 3.2 percent Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak. Russia has announced the suspension of natural gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, as the European Union considers measures to restrict oil imports from the OPEC+ producer. Meanwhile, China is pursuing its Covid Zero policy and virus testing the majority of Beijing as an unprecedented lockdown approaches.


Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, the market has been gripped by a volatile period of trading, with the viral outbreak in China providing another source of instability. The European conflict has fueled inflation and increased the cost of virtually everything, from food to petrol.


Moscow is enforcing a threat to cut off natural gas supplies to countries who resist President Vladimir Putin's new demand for payment in rubles for the fuel. Although the EU has rejected the move in principle, payment deadlines are approaching. Meanwhile, Germany's economy minister stated that the country had already reduced its dependence on Russian oil to the point where a complete ban would be "manageable."


Brent is narrowly in backwardation following Tuesday's close to a bearish contango structure. The worldwide benchmark's prompt timespread was 38 cents in backwardation – a bullish trend – compared to a high of $4.64 in early March, immediately following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.