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On September 18, Bloomberg reported on the 17th that a Spirit Airlines passenger plane had an "uncomfortably close encounter" with Air Force One, the plane carrying President Trump, on the 16th. The report said that Trumps plane was en route to London when it encountered the Spirit Airlines plane over New York City. The two planes were approximately 10 to 13 kilometers apart, about to exceed the safe distance limit, and their flight paths intersected. A recording of an air-to-ground conversation cited in the report showed that the air traffic controller urgently called out to the pilot of the budget airliner, asking him to adjust his course, but the pilot did not respond in time. The air traffic controller then reminded the pilot, "Pay attention to the 747 a few miles away. I believe you can recognize it." Because the pilot did not respond in time, the air traffic controller also scolded the pilot, "Be careful, stop playing with your iPad!"Futures data from September 18th showed a significant downward pressure on copper prices, likely driven by risk aversion ahead of the Federal Reserves interest rate meeting. With expectations of a rate cut materializing and the Feds overall neutral stance, copper prices retreated from their highs during the US trading session. The Fed cut rates as expected, but Powell, in a post-meeting statement, stated the move was a risk management decision, adding that he saw no need for a rapid rate adjustment. While global raw material tightening has eased, supply-side pressures have yet to materialize. Demand for end-consumption remains uncertain, along with the macroeconomic environment. In the short term, copper prices are looking for a breakout driver after hitting the upper limit of volatility, with the market fluctuating between "recession" and soft landing scenarios. The September Fed meeting was uneventful, and while a major upward macro driver has yet to materialize, the long-term supply-demand imbalance remains the primary concern. For now, high volatility is likely to persist until real conditions improve. Trading remains cautious regarding changes in demand and the overseas macroeconomic environment.On September 18th, Meta Platforms (META.O) announced the launch of a new generation of Ray-Ban smart glasses, with significantly longer battery life and 3K video recording capabilities. The technical name of this new pair of glasses is Ray-Ban Meta Gen 2, with a starting price of US$379. At the same time, Meta also launched its first glasses with a built-in display. The latest model is Meta Ray-Ban Display, with a starting price of US$799. The glasses have a built-in screen in the right lens, which can display text messages, video calls, turn-by-turn map navigation, and visual query results of Meta AI services. These glasses also introduce a new control system. Although users can still operate them by swiping along the frame like previous models, the main interface is controlled by a wristband worn on the hand that recognizes gestures. At the same time, Meta also announced the launch of Oakley Vanguard smart glasses, which are targeted at athletes.Meta Platforms (META.O) announced the establishment of Meta Horizon Studio.Meta Platforms (META.O): Ray-Ban Display smart glasses start at $799 and will be available starting September 30.

Oil, Gold, the EUR/USD, the USD/JPY, and the USD/CNY Exchange Rates are All Being Analyzed

Larissa Barlow

Apr 08, 2022 10:16

Macroeconomic Analysis of the World

Although the tape is exceedingly choppy, US stocks were aided by a little increase in real rates, solid profit expectations, and a fall in energy prices.

 

Next week marks the start of the first-quarter earnings season, and as is customary, Financials will lead things off – nearly a third of the XLF ETF reports. And with the Fed unleashing the rate hike cannons, this should be music to the ears of bank stock investors.

 

Nonetheless, as inflationary pressures intensify, stock pickers will choose companies with strong pricing power in relation to cost exposures. And I believe this might be a major trend as we move forward in 2022.

 

However, there is a strong counterbalance here in the form of recession fears, and concerns about a consumer downturn could result in broader drivers. I believe investors will become more reliant on consumer data as they consider the trade-off between price inflation and growth deflation.

 

Despite this, it has become a cliche that aggressively tightening monetary policy during a period of cyclical instability and weakening consumer demand increases the likelihood of recession. 


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Fundamental Analysis of Oil

Oil's topside feels constrained in the short term in the absence of further Russian energy penalties, following reports that the IEA will collectively release crude from emergency stocks. However, the slide below $100 for Brent was temporary, and those anticipating a larger flush were likely disappointed.

 

I continue to believe that the sentiment-driven sell-off will eventually give way and fundamentals will reassert themselves, particularly as more market participants become concerned about the US administration's ability to refill the SPR decline.

 

Oil prices remain erratic due to concerns about Russian supplies, a weakening Chinese economy, and a predicted decreased summer driving season in the United States due to rising gasoline prices.

 

Nonetheless, market shortfalls are anticipated to persist, though they will be mitigated somewhat by the expedited strategic stock release from May to November and weaker demand growth.

 

The primary bullish driver for oil is the continuous fall in Russian shipments as a result of self-imposed or official sanctions. Nonetheless, more businesses are committed to a 'private sector embargo,' which includes a complete wind-down of purchases by year's end. And in the court of public opinion, pressure is building on Brussels to act, and if that pressure valve pops and the EU bans Russian oil, Brent Crude (CO1) may hit $120 in an instant.

Fundamental Analysis of Gold

US inflation breakevens remain elevated, indicating to gold purchasers that either the already-priced combination of rate hikes and balance sheet run-off is insufficient, or that structural issues limit central banks' ability to influence inflation.

 

However, gold may move in a more narrow range in the short term, with rising real yields canceling out any bullishness on inflation hedging.

Fundamental Analysis of the Forex Markets

Another difficult week for the Eurozone, as enraged investors remained trapped in the fog of war.

Euro vs. United States Dollar

With the French presidential election taking place this weekend, the market may be hesitant about owning the euro, particularly heading into the second round of voting on Apr. 24, since incumbent Emmanuel Macron's poll lead has been eroding in recent weeks.

 

The euro has depreciated despite relatively hawkish ECB minutes warning that a prolonged period of above-target inflation would heighten the risk of expectations de-anchoring.

 

However, considering the ECB board members' track record of inconsistency, the majority of observers viewed these minutes with a grain of salt.

The US Dollar versus the Japanese Yen

Whether it's cross-JPY selling (a sign of negative risk sentiment), lower US rates, or lower energy costs, nothing appears to be able to keep the USDJPY down. The most suitable parallel appears to be a beach ball submerged - it is incapable of staying down.

The US Dollar versus the Chinese Yuan

With CPI inflation far lower than in the developed world, the PBoC and the government have the option of cutting interest rates and incentivizing consumer spending through fiscal transfers to offset the costs of the country's zero COvid efforts. This different strategy, which comes as the Fed prepares to unleash its monetary policy and quantitative easing bazookas, could result in cnh underperformance.