OPEC+'s refusal to accelerate production increases worsen the energy shortage, US Oil will look at $100 this winter

In the context of the accelerated fermentation of the global "energy shortage" crisis, international crude oil prices have also risen further this week. NYMEX crude oil rose to a seven-year high of $79.48 per barrel on Tuesday since 2014, which is only a short distance from the $80 target price expected by analysts. a step far. However, this may not be the end of the rally. Industry analysts pointed out that with OPEC+ still refusing to vigorously increase production, once the northern hemisphere enters winter, oil prices will usher in a round of violent increases.

Previously, against the background that oil prices have soared by 50% since the beginning of the year, many oil-consuming countries, including the United States and India, have urged the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to increase oil supply levels. However, this Monday At the OPEC+ monthly regular meeting (October 4), all parties still maintained the existing increase in output, and ignored the demands of the outside world to increase production.

This makes observers feel particularly uneasy, especially when winter is approaching and a strong cold wave that cannot come from the Arctic once again hits the entire northern hemisphere. In fact, in the UK before, there has been a shortage of vehicles in line for refueling. Later, after the demand for heating in winter, the continued shortage of energy supply has become even more disturbing.

In fact, the developed economies, led by the United States, currently have ultra-low levels of oil and natural gas inventories, which also worries investors, especially when the demand for heating in the winter is about to emerge. At that time, any small unexpected situation in the supply chain will cause a chain reaction in the entire market, and the consequences may be more severe than the snow disaster in Texas in February this year.

Analysts pointed out that once severely cold weather occurs in winter, coupled with setbacks in the supply chain, it may indeed cause oil prices to skyrocket above $100. In previous years, seasonal effects had relatively limited impact on NYMEX crude oil prices. The main fuel used for heating in the US domestic market was natural gas. However, this year, as natural gas prices rise excessively and oil and gas prices are inverted, more users will be forced to switch to them. Fuel heating is enough to keep oil prices rising in winter.

In fact, in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, the energy crisis has already begun to affect power supply. Many places in China have begun to restrict the electricity consumption levels of factories and even residents, and the "electricity shortage" in Europe has also intensified. Although the United States is not a country, large-scale power outages and power restrictions are not likely to occur, but the rise in electricity prices is inevitable. Conversely, in addition to rising fuel prices, the overall CPI level in the United States will be further pushed up, and the Fed will be even more in a dilemma as to whether it needs to raise interest rates in advance to quell inflation.