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On December 19th, two sources familiar with Venezuelas oil export operations stated that Venezuela approved the departure of two Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) for Asia on Thursday. These are the only two supertankers to depart since the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude oil last week. According to internal documents from Venezuelas state-owned oil company PDVSA, each tanker carries approximately 1.9 million barrels of Venezuelan Mere Heavy crude oil. Neither tanker is on the US sanctions list. The US has previously stated that it will not allow any sanctioned vessels to leave Venezuelan waters. One of the sources said the vessels plan to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders while navigating.Stellantis (STLA.N): Starting January 19, it will cut production at its Mulhouse, France plant by 28% to adapt to market demand.On December 19th, Goldman Sachs stated that the surge in gold futures prices to record highs in 2025 could continue into next year. In its 2026 outlook report released on Thursday, the firm noted, "Our baseline scenario projects gold prices to rise 14% by December 2026, reaching $4,900 per troy ounce, with upside risks." Goldman Sachs expects central bank demand for gold to continue in 2026, averaging 70 metric tons per month. The main drivers of this demand are geopolitical instability and the willingness of countries to hedge risks by increasing their gold reserves.BMW: It will launch a second round of share buyback program, with the second phase amounting to up to 625 million euros, which will be held no later than January 2 to August 31 next year.December 19th - According to three sources, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers expect to keep interest rates unchanged next year, but are not yet ready to completely rule out further rate cuts due to the still highly uncertain economic outlook. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday and raised some of its economic growth and inflation forecasts, a move widely interpreted by investors as closing the door to further rate cuts. However, sources indicated that policymakers at the meeting had no intention of announcing the end of the easing cycle because uncertainty remains high. Nevertheless, all three sources stated that the most likely outcome is that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2026, consistent with market expectations. The sources said that most policymakers believe the risks to the economic growth outlook are broadly balanced, although a minority believe that actual growth may be lower than the ECBs own forecasts. There is even less disagreement on inflation, with most officials believing that inflation risks are also balanced.

OPEC+ insisted on gradually increasing production, the oil distribution once rose more than 3% and touched US$82

Oct 26, 2021 10:57

On Monday (October 4), U.S. oil futures rose 1.74 US dollars, an increase of 2.3%, and settled at 77.62 US dollars per barrel. It has been rising in the past six weeks, setting the highest level since 2014. Burundi oil rose 1.98 US dollars, or 2.5%, to close at 81.26 US dollars per barrel, rising to the highest level since 2018. According to the OPEC+ statement, the ministers of the member states approved a plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day in November. The market had previously speculated that OPEC+ might choose to increase production by a larger margin in November, but according to the representative, there was no such proposal at the meeting, and oil prices were on the rise.

At present, Saudi Arabia's oil production is close to the level before the outbreak, and oil revenue is the highest since 2018. The other member states basically abide by the plan to gradually restore idle production capacity every month. According to an unnamed US official, Washington is also satisfied with the current pace of production increase. According to the statement, OPEC+ member states will hold another production meeting on November 4. In July this year, OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day until April 2022, and gradually cancel the existing 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction plan. OPEC+'s decision to continue to gradually increase oil production has pushed up oil prices and intensified inflationary pressures. Consumer countries are worried that inflationary pressures will derail the economic recovery from the epidemic.

John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, said, "In view of the demand situation and the results of the OPEC meeting, the overall sentiment of the crude oil market is bullish." Goldman Sachs Energy Research Director Damien Courvalin said that oil prices have reached the highest level in seven years. Inventories are about to fall to a 10-year low, which laid the foundation for another significant rise. Affected by the conversion of energy consumption, there will be an additional 650,000 barrels of oil demand per day later this year.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the OPEC+ monthly meeting that the organization's decision to maintain the 400,000 barrels per day increase in production plan in November will continue to help stabilize the market. The decision to maintain output growth at this level "will be the moment of equilibrium, which will allow us to continue to normalize the market." OPEC+’s compliance rate with respect to the production restriction agreement reached 119% in August, the highest level since the beginning of the agreement. Demand exceeded supply in August, which led to a reduction in inventories. As of today, inventories are 130 million barrels lower than the 5-year average. This is good for the market and means that the market is already balanced.

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy watchdog, demand for coal and natural gas surpassed its pre-coronavirus highs, followed by oil. Three-quarters of the global energy demand is still met by fossil fuels, and non-nuclear renewable energy accounts for less than one-fifth. The increase in oil prices has also been driven by a greater increase in natural gas prices. The soaring price of natural gas has prompted people to turn to fuel oil and other crude oil products to generate electricity and meet other industrial needs.

The Director of the International Energy Agency, Birol, predicts that oil prices will fall in the next few months, bringing "good news" to the recovery of the global economy. At the same time, a White House spokesperson said that the United States will take all measures to lower gasoline prices or limit oil price increases.

(U.S. oil daily chart)

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