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Conflict Update: 1. Ukraine claims a kindergarten was attacked. 2. Zelenskyy stated Ukraine will respond "reciprocally" to Russian attacks. 3. Russia claims an administrative building at the site of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant was attacked and caught fire. 4. Ukrainian Foreign Minister: The Russian attack lasted all night, using 108 drones and 3 missiles, including morning strikes on Kharkiv and Zaporizhia. Other Updates: 1. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated its willingness to engage in effective negotiations on the Ukrainian issue. 2. The Russian Foreign Ministry called on all countries to evacuate their personnel from Kyiv in a timely manner. 3. Zelenskyy: Russian troops have violated the ceasefire agreement initiated by Kyiv 1,820 times. 4. Ukraines chief negotiator may travel to the US this week to meet with Vitkov. 5. The Russian Security Service arrested several agents gathering intelligence for Ukraine. 6. Norway provided 2.8 billion Norwegian kroner in aid to Ukraine. 7. French Foreign Minister: Putins troops withdrew 120 square kilometers from Ukraine in April, the first time in three years. The Russian economy is in crisis. The Kremlin should have opened its eyes to its failures long ago and ended this senseless and costly conflict.According to the New York Times: U.S. officials said Wednesday that residents in three states are being monitored for the risk of hantavirus infection after traveling on a Dutch cruise ship. Officials stated that none of those being monitored have shown any symptoms so far.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum was down 0.02% and spot palladium was down 0.17%.Futures News, May 7th: 1. Heavy Rainfall in Southern China. From May 7th to 8th, most parts of Jiangnan and South China will experience moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds. It is expected that from 08:00 on May 7th to 08:00 on May 8th, parts of central and western South China and southern Southwest China will experience thunderstorms with winds of level 8 or higher, or hail; parts of central and eastern Jiangnan, central and eastern South China, and southern Southwest China will experience short-term heavy rainfall with hourly rainfall exceeding 20 mm, with some areas in central Guangdong experiencing hourly rainfall exceeding 50 mm, and a maximum exceeding 60 mm. The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue warning for severe convective weather at 06:00 on May 7th. 2. Heavy Rainfall in Northern Brazil and France. Yesterday, moderate to heavy rain occurred in parts of northern Brazil, France, the eastern United States, southern Chile, northern Italy, Germany, Belgium, Gabon, eastern South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Brunei, with some areas experiencing torrential rain. Additionally, moderate to heavy snow occurred in parts of the Alaska Peninsula, southeastern Canada, Siberia in Russia, and northern Northern Europe, with some areas experiencing blizzards. 3. Persistent high temperatures are expected in West Asia, South Asia, and north-central Africa. Over the next three days, parts of Southeast Asia and Mexico will experience temperatures above 38°C, while parts of the southeastern Arabian Peninsula, southeastern Iran, southwestern Afghanistan, southern Pakistan, western India, and north-central Africa will experience temperatures above 40°C, with some areas exceeding 42°C. 4. Strong winds and rain in the southeastern United States ⑥ Over the next three days, moderate to heavy rain is expected in the southeastern United States and northeastern Mexico, with some areas experiencing torrential rain and localized extremely heavy rain, accompanied by short-duration heavy precipitation, thunderstorms, strong winds, and other severe convective weather; most of the above-mentioned areas will experience a temperature drop of 4-8°C, with some areas experiencing a drop of more than 10°C, and there will be winds of force 4-6, with gusts of force 7-9, and gusts of force 10 or higher in the southeastern coastal areas of the United States and the eastern coastal areas of Canada.Bank of Japan meeting minutes: One member said that the central bank may have inadvertently been slow to respond to inflation risks.

OPEC+ has no intention of expanding production, Goldman Sachs expects to hit US$90 within this year

Oct 26, 2021 10:58

OPEC+ agreed on Monday (October 4) to maintain the existing gradual increase in production plan, driving the price of US crude oil to a 7-year high, and Brent crude oil to a 3-year high.


Prior to the ministerial meeting on Monday, an OPEC+ source had stated that the organization was under pressure to accelerate production, but he added, “We are afraid of the fourth wave of COVID-19 and no one wants to take any major measures.”

At today’s ministerial meeting, OPEC+ member states agreed to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day from November according to the established plan. OPEC+ is still implementing 5.8 million barrels per day production reduction measures, but plans to increase production by 2022. Gradually withdraw the production reduction agreement before April.

The news of maintaining the existing production increase plan boosted oil prices on Monday. U.S. crude oil hit a new high since November 2014, and Brent crude oil hit a new high since October 2018.

(U.S. crude oil monthly chart)

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said at the meeting that he will pay close attention to how the market balances, and said that crude oil demand will generally decline in the fourth quarter of each year.

Peter McNally, head of Third Bridge's industrial and materials global department, said that OPEC+'s production policy has been the reason for the rapid decline in inventories in the past 15 months. At the peak in June last year, OECD crude oil and refined oil inventories were an average of 9% higher than their five-year season, but by the end of the summer of this year, inventories were more than 6% below normal levels.

At the same time, other sources of supply have been slow to respond to the rise in crude oil prices. Oil production was affected by Hurricane Ida in late August, but more importantly, US producers have been hesitant to increase drilling activities in all regions. So overall, the result is tepid supply growth.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that as the price of natural gas soared, utility power stations began to switch to oil production. Later this year, the daily demand for crude oil will increase by 650,000 barrels, and the international crude oil price looks at US$90.

Due to the worsening of the global natural gas crisis, natural gas prices have soared to historical highs. Goldman Sachs analyst Damien Courvalin predicts that the power-to-fuel conversion will increase the demand and price of crude oil. The bank expects Brent crude oil futures to reach 90 per barrel by the end of this year. Dollar.

The European energy crisis is spreading across the world, increasing the potential shortages in some countries. Energy consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that by the end of this year, the winter crisis may increase daily demand for crude oil by nearly 1 million barrels. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest crude oil exporter, also said on Monday that it has seen daily crude oil consumption increase by 500,000 barrels.

Courvalin also said that when the natural gas is used up every winter near the beginning of spring, there will be a peak in oil combustion. Globally, if the winter is very cold, oil demand can easily reach 1 to 2 million barrels per day.

Courvalin said that this year's natural gas and oil inventories are tight, but oil has more idle production capacity than natural gas. The oil industry is gradually recovering from the huge loss last year, and they have expressed their unwillingness to increase production and give priority to debt repayment.

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