On Wednesday (October 13), US oil futures fell 0.2 US dollars, or 0.3%, and settled at 80.44 US dollars per barrel. Bilbao oil fell 0.24 US dollars, or 0.3%, to close at 83.18 US dollars per barrel. OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil consumption in 2021 in its monthly market report. The organization stated that although soaring natural gas prices may increase oil use in some areas such as power generation, it may also curb demand in other areas, including oil refining. At one point, it fell to a low of the past two days.
The OPEC monthly report maintains the global oil demand growth forecast in 2022 unchanged at 4.2 million barrels per day, with an average of 100.8 million barrels per day, and lowers the forecast of oil demand growth in 2021 from the previous 5.96 million barrels per day to 5.82 million barrels per day. /Day, rising natural gas and thermal coal prices will encourage more energy consumption to shift from natural gas to oil. Second-hand data shows that Iran’s September crude oil production increased by 22,000 barrels per day to 2.503 million barrels per day.
Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said that today’s OPEC monthly report seems to provide something for both bulls and bears. The agency unexpectedly downgraded its forecast for this year’s global oil demand...but it revised down the supply of non-OPEC oil-producing countries. Growth estimates.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that crude oil prices may reach 100 US dollars per barrel, and pointed out that if Europe requests it, Moscow is prepared to provide Europe with more natural gas. The focus of the energy market is on how tight supply will affect oil demand, especially in the major oil-consuming countries in Asia.
ThinkMarkets financial market analyst Fawad Razaqzada said in an interview that although crude oil futures show some signs of weakness, "the trend is still clearly bullish. To reverse this pattern, there needs to be macro drivers." Oil prices may soar above US$100 per barrel. However, in the short term, if WTI oil prices fall below US$79.30 per barrel, they may face some selling pressure. Before the price of oil drops to US$76.50 per barrel, every drop may be seen as a buying opportunity by traders.
Earlier EIA short-term energy outlook report showed that the total global crude oil consumption in 2021 is expected to be 97.47 million barrels per day, and the total global crude oil consumption in 2022 is 10.95 million barrels per day. It is estimated that US crude oil production will be 11.02 million barrels per day in 2021, and US crude oil production will be 11.73 million barrels per day in 2022. The growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2021 is expected to be 5.05 million barrels per day, compared with 4.96 million barrels per day. The growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2022 is expected to be 3.48 million barrels per day, compared with 3.63 million barrels per day. The WTI crude oil price is expected to be US$68.48/barrel in 2021, and the price of Brent crude oil is expected to be US$71.38/barrel in 2021.
US President Biden is under severe pressure to control inflation so as not to threaten economic recovery and the political ambitions of the Democratic Party. For this reason, senior government officials held a meeting on Tuesday evening to discuss the issue of rising gasoline and natural gas prices. According to three people familiar with the matter, cabinet officials including Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and Secretary of State Anthony Brinken attended the meeting to try to reach a consensus on how to deal with high energy costs and rising inflation. Two people familiar with the matter said that officials have not yet decided on the next course of action, and they have been holding regular meetings on the matter. A White House spokesperson declined to disclose the details of the meeting, but reiterated that the government will use "all tools" to curb gasoline prices. Gasoline prices have reached the highest level since 2014 for the same period.
The API report shows that as of the week of October 8, crude oil inventories increased by 5.213 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.575 million barrels, refined oil inventories decreased by 2.275 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 2.275 million barrels.
(4 hours chart of US Oil)
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