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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 506.51 points, or 0.97%, at 51,493.16 on Wednesday, June 17; the S&P 500 closed down 91.22 points, or 1.21%, at 7,420.13; and the Nasdaq Composite closed down 354.69 points, or 1.34%, at 26,021.66 on Wednesday, June 17.June 18th - On Wednesday, following a hawkish Federal Reserve meeting, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.97%, the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3%. SpaceX (SPCX.O) closed down 5%, Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell 1%, and Western Digital (WDC.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.1%, and Li Auto (LI.O) fell 3%.June 18th – Warshs first press conference as Federal Reserve Chairman officially concluded, during which he previewed a series of reforms to be implemented at the Fed. One significant change is the establishment of several special working groups to explore more open data collection methods and study how to improve the Feds existing statistical indicator system. During the press conference, Warsh repeatedly emphasized that he would not provide any forward guidance and avoided all questions regarding the future path of interest rates. Furthermore, he did not submit his personal interest rate forecasts in this dot plot and stated that he would not comment on any price fluctuations that occurred in the market during the press conference. Overall, the core message conveyed by Warshs first press conference was: reduce policy guidance to the market, downplay pre-commitments to the interest rate path, and focus more on reforming the Feds systems, data structures, and communication framework.The market has fully priced in two Fed rate hikes by the end of the first quarter of 2027.June 18th - According to CMEs "FedWatch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by July is 64.0% (91.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 35.1% (8.9% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 1% (0% before the decision). The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged by December is 14.2% (38.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 36.4% (43.0% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate hike is 33.8% (16.2% before the decision), the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate hike is 13.5% (2.4% before the decision), and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis point rate hike is 2.1% (0.1% before the decision).

OPEC Warns EU Replacing Lost Russian Oil Supplies is Impossible

Haiden Holmes

Apr 12, 2022 09:21

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"We might possibly lose over 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and other liquids exports as a consequence of existing and future sanctions or other voluntary steps," OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo said in a draft of his speech obtained by Reuters.


"Given the present demand picture, it would be practically difficult to compensate for this scale of volume loss."


The European Union renewed its appeal during the conference for oil-producing nations to consider increasing supplies to help calm surging oil prices, according to a European Commission official.


EU delegates also emphasized OPEC's responsibilities to maintain stable oil markets, the source said.


OPEC has rejected requests from the US and the International Energy Agency to increase petroleum production in order to lower prices, which hit a 14-year high last month as a result of Washington and Brussels imposing sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.


According to an OPEC document reviewed by Reuters, at the discussion with OPEC, the EU said that OPEC might increase output from its spare capacity.


Nonetheless, Barkindo said that the present extremely volatile market is the product of "non-fundamental variables" outside OPEC's control, indicating the organization would refrain from pumping further crude.


OPEC, which includes OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia, would increase supply by around 432,000 barrels per day in May as part of a gradual unwinding of output curbs implemented during the worst of the COVID-19 epidemic.


The EU-OPEC meeting on Monday afternoon was the latest in a series of discussions that began in 2005.


So far, penalties on Russian oil have been omitted by the EU. However, when the 27-nation group decided last week to impose Russian coal – the organization's first energy-related restriction – several top EU officials suggested oil may come next.


The European Commission is preparing ideas for an oil embargo against Russia, Ireland's, Lithuania's, and the Netherlands' foreign ministers announced Monday during an EU foreign ministers conference in Luxembourg, despite the fact that there was no consensus to restrict Russian petroleum.


Australia, Canada, and the United States, which are less dependent on Russian energy than Europe, have already prohibited the import of Russian oil.


EU member states are divided on whether to follow suit, given their increased reliance and the possibility for the move to drive up Europe's already high energy costs.


The EU plans to reduce its oil consumption by 30% by 2030, compared to 2015 levels, as part of its climate change objectives – yet an embargo would prompt a rush to replace Russian oil with other supplies in the near term.

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