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March 10th - According to foreign media reports, both Goldman Sachs and Barclays have warned that continued oil price increases could push up overall inflation. Goldman Sachs estimates that a sustained 10% rise in oil prices could increase the CPI by approximately 0.28 percentage points. In one scenario, if oil prices rise by about $10 and remain high for three months, the US inflation rate could rise from 2.4% to about 3%. Barclays believes that oil prices approaching $100 per barrel will push up overall inflation, primarily through gasoline prices. Based on its baseline outlook, it expects overall US inflation to be around 2.7% year-on-year, and core inflation to be around 2.8%, assuming oil prices do not remain high for an extended period. If oil prices continue to approach $100 per barrel, it could push the inflation rate towards 3% and potentially delay expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.March 10th - According to the Ministry of Water Resources, as of 10:00 AM on March 9th, the Yellow River had thawed for a total of 379.3 kilometers. It is expected to be fully thawed around March 14th, nine days earlier than usual. The maximum ten-day water volume at the Toudaoguai hydrological station is estimated at around 600 million cubic meters, about 40% less than usual; the maximum peak flow during the thaw is expected to be around 950 cubic meters per second, about 50% lower than usual. The thaw is progressing smoothly, and the overall risks are controllable.On March 10, the European Commission for Economic and Financial Affairs held a meeting in Brussels, Belgium, attended by finance ministers from EU member states. According to information previously published on the EU website, the meeting agenda included a routine discussion on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the current economic and financial situation in Ukraine.The main Shanghai copper futures contract rose more than 2.00% intraday, currently trading at 101,890.00 yuan/ton.On March 10th, it was reported that Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh will meet this week with a Republican senator who previously blocked his confirmation by opposing President Trumps attacks on the Fed. Warshs meeting is intended to resolve differences and move the nomination forward, but it also reflects the Trump administrations intention to interfere with the Feds independence. This event not only concerns a change in Fed leadership but could also affect the future direction of US monetary policy and the stability of global financial markets.

OPEC+ Is Working to Compensate For Reduced Russian Oil Production

Charlie Brooks

Jun 02, 2022 15:57

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OPEC+ is attempting to compensate for a decline in Russian oil production, according to two OPEC+ sources on Thursday, as Russia's production has fallen by approximately 1 million barrels per day as a result of Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over the Ukraine crisis.


One OPEC+ source familiar with Russia's position stated that Moscow could agree to other producers paying for its lower output, but it may not occur on Thursday and may not be in full.


A Gulf OPEC+ source said that a resolution on the topic was "very probable" at Thursday's meeting.


Despite tighter global markets, it is largely anticipated that the group would adhere to its scheduled monthly small output increases when it meets online later on Thursday.


However, Western sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine may result in production and export cuts of up to 2 to 3 million barrels per day from the world's second largest oil exporter.


In April, Russia's supply of approximately 9.4 million barrels per day (bpd) was already below its OPEC+ target of 10.44 million bpd.