EUR/USD
1.14417
0.085%
Gold
4173.43
1.207%
Oil
68.359
-0.086%
USD/JPY
161.276
0.107%
GBP/USD
1.33541
0.062%
GBP/JPY
215.374
0.183%
Real-time News
July 3 – Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran stated, “The US non-farm payroll data was actually weak, but I still believe inflation will peak above 3.7%, and artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy sector continue to support economic growth. The Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is the real point of contention between the US and Europe.” Subran believes that the European Central Bank will not take further action after last months rate hike. “That was an insurance-style rate hike, but judging from the current data, it seems to be over,” he said. “The traumatic effects of the (Iranian) war will take time to manifest; the economy is still bearing the costs of the war, but the situation is much better now than it was a few weeks ago.”NATOs Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe: Europe has increased its investment. Europe is filling the gaps left by the US repositioning its troops.The Houthi rebels in Yemen stated that if Saudi Arabia launches further attacks, it will "face attacks targeting Saudi airports and other vital objectives."July 3 - A Bloomberg survey shows that OPEC member countries have resumed oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran peace agreement. The survey indicates that OPECs oil production increased by 2.34 million barrels per day in June, reaching 18.75 million barrels per day, with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran showing the most significant increases. Despite the recovery, production remains far below pre-war levels. Even before the peace agreement, Persian Gulf oil-producing countries had found ways to secretly transport goods through the Strait of Hormuz. In the early stages of the conflict, the strait was almost completely closed. With the US-Iran agreement allowing more overt transit, tanker tracking data shows that Saudi oil shipments have recovered to 90% of normal levels. Following the UAEs withdrawal from OPEC, the organizations June production was still 7.3 million barrels per day lower than February levels, a decrease of 28%.
1. Data shows that Gulf region oil exports in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day compared to May, exceeding 10 million barrels per day, but are still 40% lower than pre-war levels. The UAE led the oil market recovery, allowing millions of barrels of crude oil stranded in the Gulf region to enter the international market, enabling producers to increase output and bring oil prices down to pre-war levels. 2. According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, to avoid fuel shortages, Moscow has taken further measures to increase domestic fuel reserves. In June, subsidies issued by the Russian government to refineries supplying oil to the domestic market increased more than sixfold compared to the same period last year. 3. A statement from the NATO Ankara summit obtained by Reuters indicates that NATO leaders will declare that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons and call on Iran to fully respect freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Three sources said that Venezuelas largest refinery, the Amuay refinery with a daily processing capacity of 645,000 barrels, resumed operation on Friday after a power outage and is currently processing approximately 140,000 barrels per day of crude oil. The fluidized bed catalytic cracking (FCC) unit has also resumed operation. 5. Three Iranian and Western sources said Iran has begun negotiations with Japanese companies regarding the sale of oil, but potential buyers are seeking longer US sanctions waivers and guarantees of safe navigation conditions in the Gulf region. 6. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry stated that Iraq and Turkey are expected to sign an implementing protocol to ensure the continuation of Iraqi oil exports (including crude oil from the Kurdish region). Iraq and Turkey agreed to continue technical and legal negotiations regarding oil exports. 7. On July 3, the launch meeting for the price supervisor system in Chinas steel industry was held in Beijing. Tang Zujun, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee and Vice President of the China Iron and Steel Association, emphasized that the steel industry has entered a new stage of development focused on reducing output and optimizing existing capacity. Enterprises can no longer rely on price wars for survival but should instead focus more on technology, quality, brand, value, and service. 8. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture announced grain export tariffs and benchmark (guidance) prices for the week ending July 8-14, 2026. Wheat export tariffs increased from 0.0 rubles/ton last week to 370.1 rubles/ton; the benchmark price rose from $233.8/ton to $239.4/ton. 9. According to sources and letters, due to an administrative glitch in the customs platform, major cobalt producers in the Democratic Republic of Congo may be unable to fulfill their first-half export quotas, thus facing the risk of losing some quotas. This glitch could affect the export of battery metal cobalt by major global producers, potentially resulting in up to 20,000 tons of cobalt being unable to be exported at current prices, involving a value of approximately $1.1 billion.
