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Near 0.6650, AUD/USD Traders Remain Bullish; Risk Appetite, Fed Minutes on the Horizon

Alina Haynes

Nov 23, 2022 15:57

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In the early hours of Wednesday, AUD/USD is modestly bid around 0.6655-50, maintaining the previous day's rebound from a two-week-old support despite contradicting market mood. The latest quiet in the AUD/USD pair indicates traders' caution ahead of critical US activity data for November, as well as a cautious attitude ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and US Durable Goods Orders for October.

 

In the meantime, the coronavirus situation in China continues to deteriorate as daily cases approach the April record high and Chengdu announces mass COVID-19 testing from November 23 to 27. According to Reuters, on November 22, local government agencies in Beijing reported 388 new symptomatic locally transmitted COVID-19 infections and 1,098 asymptomatic cases.

 

AUD/USD bulls were boosted by anticipation of a rapprochement with China, as well as the recent rally of equities and decrease in US Treasury yields.

 

According to the Australian Financial Review (AFR), "Defence Minister Richard Marles said China's willingness to reengage was expressed during a bilateral meeting with his Chinese counterpart General Wei Fenghe on Tuesday, their first since the Shangri La talks in Singapore in June."

 

In November, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved from -10 to -9, but Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George recently noted, "We may need a higher interest rate for some time to urge households to continue saving." The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for Australia declined to 51.5 from 52.7 and 52.4 earlier in the day, while the Services PMI decreased to 47.2 from 49.3 and 49.4 respectively.

 

In this scenario, European and British markets, along with Wall Street, closed higher, as 10-year US Treasury yields fell six basis points (bps) to 3.76 percent. However, benchmark bond rates remain relatively stable near 3.75 percent, whereas S&P 500 Futures struggle to find a clear direction close to 4,011.

 

Traders will examine the short-term direction of AUD/USD based on further confirmed economic transition indicators and the December rate hike of 50 basis points (bps) by the Federal Reserve. Despite this, PMI numbers for early November. In addition, the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes and US Durable Goods Orders will be key for defining direction.

 

Despite the recent bounce from a two-week-old ascending support line, AUD/USD bears remain bullish as the monthly peak near 0.6800 threatens the upward momentum. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 14 combines with the recently weaker Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) signals to challenge AUD/USD buyers.

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