This week, most agricultural areas across the country were slightly inadequate in light and temperature, and the weather conditions were basically conducive to the formation of autumn harvest, autumn planting and late rice production; the proportion of sites with excessive soil moisture in North China and Huanghuai dropped from last week, and the proportion of suitable sites rose, and sowing conditions improved. . There are more rainy days in the southeast of Northwest China, the northern part of Huanghuai area, and the southern part of Northeast China, which is not conducive to soil moisture removal from farmland and autumn harvesting and autumn farming operations; South China coastal areas and southeast coastal areas are affected by typhoons and have strong wind and rain. It is conducive to agricultural production, but it is conducive to increasing the storage of reservoirs and ponds.
It is expected that in the next 10 days, two cold air will affect China successively. The low temperature in the central and eastern regions will be slightly unfavorable to the production of facility agriculture and the emergence and growth of winter wheat seedlings. From 16 to 18, affected by tropical disturbances, the coastal areas of southern China will be affected. The occurrence of wind and rain is unfavorable to agricultural and fishery production. In the northern winter wheat areas, the precipitation is relatively low, which is conducive to the spread of soil moisture and wheat sowing in the over-humid farmland; the precipitation in the Jianghuai and Jiangnan areas will increase, and the drought in some areas will be alleviated.
1. Main weather characteristics
This week, the temperature in most parts of Northeast China, eastern Jianghuai, central and eastern Jiangnan, southern China and most of southwestern China, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was close to normal or 1-4℃ higher than normal, while the temperature in most other parts of the country was 1-4℃ lower, and northern Xinjiang It is as low as 4～6℃ (Figure 1). The eastern part of Northeast China, the central and southern parts of North China, the northern part of Huanghuai, the eastern part of Northwestern China, the western part of Jiangnan, the central and northern part of South China, and the eastern part of Southwest China have precipitation of 10-100 mm. The area reaches 200-400 mm; the precipitation in the rest of the country is generally less than 10 mm or there is no precipitation (Figure 2). Most of the country’s agricultural areas have normal or low sunshine, including the eastern part of Northwest China, Jianghuai, most of Jianghan, northeastern and western Jiangnan, central South China, Sichuan Basin, etc., which are 50% to 1 times less sunshine; only parts of western Yunnan are more frequent 3 to 80% (Figure 3).
Figure 1 National average temperature anomaly
Figure 2 National precipitation
Figure 3 Percentage of national sunshine anomaly
2. Crop growth and development status
Most of the first-season rice in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is in the milk-maturing to mature stage, and some have been harvested; the first-season rice in the northeast and southwest regions is in the mature harvest stage.
The spring corn in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia, and North China is in the mature harvest stage, and the other areas have already been harvested.
Summer maize in North China and Northwest China is in the mature harvest stage, and most of it has been harvested in Huanghuai and Southwest China.
Late rice in most parts of Jiangnan and northern South China is in the stage of milk-maturing to maturity, and most of southern central and southern China is in the stage of heading to milk-maturing. The first and second types of late rice seedlings accounted for 10% and 88%, respectively. The first type of seedlings decreased by 2 percentage points from last week, and the second type of seedlings increased by 2 percentage points from last week.
Most of the cotton in Xinjiang, Huanghuaihai and Jianghan areas is in the spitting period.
Soybeans in Northeast China, North China, Huanghuai and Northwest China are in the stage of harvesting.
Winter wheat in Northwest China, North China, and Huanghuai is in the seedling and seedling stage, and parts of southern Xinjiang enter the three-leaf stage.
The rapeseed in the Yangtze River Basin is in the seedling and seedling stage, and most of the southern Shaanxi and Sichuan Basin are in the seedling to the fifth true leaf stage.
3. Analysis of soil moisture
The results of 20 cm soil moisture monitoring on October 13 showed that: northern and southeastern Heilongjiang, central Jilin, central and eastern Liaoning, southwestern Shanxi, southern and eastern Hebei, central and northern Henan, most of Shandong, central Shaanxi, eastern Gansu, western Hubei, The soil is too wet in parts of northwest and south Hunan, southeast Zhejiang, northeast Fujian, central Guangdong, western and central Yunnan, etc.; central Inner Mongolia, central Anhui, central Jiangxi, northwest Zhejiang, northwest Fujian, northern Guizhou, etc. Soil moisture is lacking; most of the remaining soil moisture measurement areas have suitable soil moisture (Figure 4). This week, the percentage of sites with excessive soil moisture decreased by 2.0 percentage points from last week, 12.9 percentage points more than the same period last year; the percentage of sites with suitable moisture content increased by 6.5 percentage points from last week, and 6.9 percentage points less than the same period last year; This was a decrease of 4.5 percentage points last week, 6.0 percentage points less than the same period last year (Table 1).
Figure 4 The relative humidity of 20 cm soil
4. Analysis of agro-meteorological conditions in various regions
Northeast and Inner Mongolia: During the week, the central and northern parts of Northeast China and the eastern part of Inner Mongolia are more sunny and less rainy, with high temperature and bare feet. The autumn harvest is smooth; most of Liaoning and eastern Jilin have 3-4 days of precipitation during the week, with 80% to 4% more precipitation. In some areas, the soil humidity is still high, which is unfavorable for autumn harvest. The start of autumn harvest of dryland crops in Liaoning is about 10 days later than usual.
Northwest, North China, Huanghuai: Most areas have slightly insufficient light and temperature, mainly cloudy or cloudy, which is basically conducive to the mature harvest of autumn crops, the cracking of cotton bolls, and the mature harvest of economic trees. There are more rainy days in the southeastern part of the northwestern region and the northern part of Huanghuai area. The number of rainy days is 5-6 days, which is not conducive to the removal of moisture in the soil and the mechanization of autumn harvest and autumn planting. After 11 days, the rainy season ends and the weather improves, which is conducive to speeding up the autumn harvest. Planting progress; the cold, rain, snow, and windy sand weather in northern Xinjiang is unfavorable for cotton and fruit picking, winter wheat planting and seedling emergence, and livestock shifting.
Jianghuai, Jianghan, Jiangnan, and South China: In the early part of the week, the temperature was relatively high and the sunlight was suitable in most areas, which is conducive to the maturation and harvesting of one-season rice, the cracking of cotton bolls, the formation of late rice production, and the harvest of fruits and vegetables. Affected by the cold air in the latter part of the week, the temperature in most areas dropped significantly, from high to low. 10-100 mm of precipitation occurred in Jianghuai, southern Jianghan, western Jiangnan, and central and northern South China. The high temperature and drought conditions in some areas in the early period were alleviated; Jiangxi There is still no significant precipitation in most areas, and drought continues in areas with deviated irrigation conditions. Affected by the typhoon "Lion Mountain", "Compass" and cold air, strong wind and rain occurred in the coastal areas of South China and the southeast coast. Some late rice that was still in the heading and flowering stage suffered "rain washing the flowers", bananas, mangoes, lychees, etc. Tropical fruit trees have damaged leaves and broken branches; however, abundant precipitation is conducive to increasing water storage in reservoirs and ponds.
Southwest: During the week, the temperature in the eastern part of the southwest was basically normal, and most of Guizhou and Chongqing saw precipitation of more than 25 mm, which effectively supplemented the soil moisture. The moisture shortage in southern Chongqing and most of Guizhou has been significantly improved. The weather conditions are generally favorable for autumn sowing and rape. Seedlings grow. The high temperature and normal sunlight in the south of the southwest region are conducive to the ripe harvesting of crops such as one-season rice and summer corn.
5. Recent weather trends and focus
It is expected that in the next 10 days, two strands of cold air will affect China successively, appearing on 15-17 and 19-21 respectively. The temperature in the central and eastern regions will be lower, and the average temperature in most parts of North China and its south will be lower than normal. A low temperature of 3 to 5°C is slightly unfavorable to facility agricultural production and winter wheat emergence and seedling growth; on the 16th to 18th, affected by tropical disturbances, wind and rain will occur in the coastal areas of South China, which is unfavorable for agricultural and fishery production. In the next 10 days, there will be less precipitation in the northern winter wheat area, which is conducive to soil moisture dispersal and wheat sowing in the over-humid farmland; most of the southern part has more precipitation, with a cumulative precipitation of 30-50 mm, and 60-80 mm in some areas, which is conducive to some relief. Regional drought conditions and rapeseed seedlings and reservoir storage; but the rainy weather in the southwest and south of the Yangtze River is slightly unfavorable for the cultivation of strong rapeseeds (Figure 5).
In the next 11-20 days, the accumulated precipitation in the eastern part of Southwest China, southern Jiangnan, and southern South China will be 15-25 mm, 30-50 mm in parts of southern South China, and 70-100 mm locally; most of the above-mentioned areas will have more precipitation than normal. During the same period, there were a little more, and all localities beware of local farmland waterlogging disasters; the lack of precipitation in most of North China is conducive to the further dispersion of soil moisture in the wet areas and the emergence and growth of winter wheat seedlings.
Figure 5 Focus of Agricultural Meteorology
6. Suggestions for agricultural production
The northern area should pay attention to seizing favorable weather, speed up the progress of autumn harvest, and do a good job of ventilating and storing to prevent mildew. In the northern winter wheat area, where there is a lot of early precipitation and the soil is too wet, we should do a good job of removing moisture and dispersing moisture and sowing the wheat to ensure that winter wheat is planted in a timely manner; in areas where the soil is wet and waterlogged, the planting amount can be increased appropriately to strive for one planting. Whole seedlings. At the same time, all parts of the north need to do a good job in reinforcement of facility sheds and heat preservation and cold protection.
Oilseed rape production areas in the Yangtze River Basin should use rain to plant rapeseed in a timely manner; Jianghuai, Jiangnan and other areas with low early precipitation should use precipitation weather to store water in reservoirs and ponds to ensure sufficient water for autumn sowing. Late rice areas in Jiangnan and South China should strengthen the management of water and fertilizer in paddy fields to promote the formation of late rice production; in Jiangnan areas, pay attention to harvesting mature late rice to ensure that the grains are returned to the warehouse. In addition, the coastal areas of southern China need to guard against the adverse effects of strong wind and rain brought by typhoons on agriculture and fisheries.
(Source: Central Meteorological Observatory)
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