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Japans total household spending fell 3.5% month-on-month in October, compared to a forecast of 0.7% and a previous reading of -0.7%.Japans household spending in October fell 2.9% year-on-year, compared to a forecast of 1% and a previous reading of 1.80%.On December 5th, analysts stated that Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Uedas emphasis on inflation risks and the danger of a weak yen persuaded Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi to accept his plan to raise interest rates in December. Just last year, Takaichi publicly called a rate hike a "foolish move." This communication appears to have worked: both the market and the new Japanese government received the signal that a small 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% later this month is almost certain, alleviating concerns that the Bank of Japan might succumb to political pressure and abandon its tightening policy. However, a more pressing issue remains: how will the Bank of Japan communicate its future rate hike path? This task is far more complex than a single rate hike, given the lack of consensus on a reasonable range for the neutral interest rate. Currently, a "fragile truce" exists between the central bank and the government, keeping the bond market tense. Investors are now focused on how Ueda will articulate the pace of subsequent rate hikes.1. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07% to 47,850.94 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.11% to 6,857.12 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.22% to 23,505.14 points. 3M Inc. fell more than 2%, and UnitedHealth Group fell nearly 2%, leading the decline in the Dow Jones. The Wind U.S. Tech Big Seven Index rose 0.4%, Facebook rose more than 3%, and Nvidia rose more than 2%. Chinese concept stocks were mixed, with Wanwu New Energy rising nearly 9% and Daqo New Energy falling nearly 3%. Market sentiment was cautious ahead of the Federal Reserves monetary policy meeting next week. 2. European stock markets closed higher across the board. The German DAX index rose 0.87% to 23,899.33 points, the French CAC40 index rose 0.43% to 8,122.03 points, and the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.19% to 9,710.87 points. Boosted by positive US ADP employment data and expectations of interest rate cuts, global risk sentiment improved, with strong performances in German auto stocks and French technology stocks driving the market upward. 3. US Treasury yields rose across the board. The 2-year Treasury yield rose 3.71 basis points to 3.521%, the 3-year Treasury yield rose 4.78 basis points to 3.545%, the 5-year Treasury yield rose 4.51 basis points to 3.673%, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 3.48 basis points to 4.098%, and the 30-year Treasury yield rose 2.39 basis points to 4.755%. 4. The WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 1.27% at $59.7 per barrel; the Brent crude oil futures contract rose 1.04% to $63.32 per barrel. 5. International precious metals futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $4237.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 1.86% to $57.53 per ounce. White House officials hinted at a possible interest rate cut, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold. EU policy adjustments and the US adding silver to its list of critical minerals impacted market demand for safe-haven assets. 6. London base metals traded mixed. LME lead rose 0.85% to $2016.00/ton, LME zinc rose 0.65% to $3085.00/ton, LME nickel rose 0.08% to $14885.00/ton, LME aluminum fell 0.33% to $2887.50/ton, LME copper fell 0.47% to $11434.00/ton, and LME tin fell 0.59% to $40540.00/ton. Commodity trader Mercuria plans to withdraw more than 40,000 tons of copper from LMEs Asian warehouses.South Koreas unadjusted current account balance for October was $6.81 billion, compared to $13.4674 billion in the previous month.

NYMEX crude oil expected to rise to US$80.92

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

On Friday (October 8), international oil prices rose, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5% this week. The reason is that there are signs that some industries have begun to shift their fuel from high-priced natural gas to oil, and people doubt whether the U.S. government will move from its strategic reserves. To release oil. Look at $80.92 on NYMEX crude oil.

GMT+8 13:55, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 1.59% to 79.50 US dollars / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 1.42% to 83.11 US dollars / barrel.


Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a report: "Oil prices have risen again after the U.S. Department of Energy stated that it has no plans to use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cool the hot oil market at this time."

In general, the increase in oil prices this week was driven by the surge in natural gas prices, the power industry was forced to switch to oil power generation, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (collectively referred to as OPEC+) decided to maintain the current monthly increase of 400,000 barrels. /Day plan.

ANZ Bank Commodity Analyst said in a report: “Accelerating the conversion of natural gas to oil may increase the demand for power generation. Winter in the northern hemisphere is coming.” He added that when winter comes, it includes diesel and heating. U.S. distillate stocks, including oil, are at their lowest level since 2000.

However, there is still uncertainty about the soaring natural gas price and the extent to which the power industry will increase oil demand. JPMorgan Chase analysts pointed out that they have not heard of the large-scale switch to oil power generation in the European power sector. "This means that under normal winter conditions, the estimated demand for natural gas conversion of 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day may be extremely exaggerated. "

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74 and broke through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and the ((3)) wave 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in five upward waves starting from $74.97. The upper resistance looks at the 100% target of $79.78 and the 123.6% target of $80.92. Wave 5 is a sub-wave of the upward (1) wave that started at $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.