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NYMEX crude oil expected to rise to US$80.92

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

On Friday (October 8), international oil prices rose, with a cumulative increase of nearly 5% this week. The reason is that there are signs that some industries have begun to shift their fuel from high-priced natural gas to oil, and people doubt whether the U.S. government will move from its strategic reserves. To release oil. Look at $80.92 on NYMEX crude oil.

GMT+8 13:55, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 1.59% to 79.50 US dollars / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 1.42% to 83.11 US dollars / barrel.


Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a report: "Oil prices have risen again after the U.S. Department of Energy stated that it has no plans to use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cool the hot oil market at this time."

In general, the increase in oil prices this week was driven by the surge in natural gas prices, the power industry was forced to switch to oil power generation, and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led partners (collectively referred to as OPEC+) decided to maintain the current monthly increase of 400,000 barrels. /Day plan.

ANZ Bank Commodity Analyst said in a report: “Accelerating the conversion of natural gas to oil may increase the demand for power generation. Winter in the northern hemisphere is coming.” He added that when winter comes, it includes diesel and heating. U.S. distillate stocks, including oil, are at their lowest level since 2000.

However, there is still uncertainty about the soaring natural gas price and the extent to which the power industry will increase oil demand. JPMorgan Chase analysts pointed out that they have not heard of the large-scale switch to oil power generation in the European power sector. "This means that under normal winter conditions, the estimated demand for natural gas conversion of 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day may be extremely exaggerated. "

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74 and broke through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and the ((3)) wave 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in five upward waves starting from $74.97. The upper resistance looks at the 100% target of $79.78 and the 123.6% target of $80.92. Wave 5 is a sub-wave of the upward (1) wave that started at $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.

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