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On August 28th, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Ghalibaf posted a sarcastic remark on social media, criticizing US Treasury Secretary John Bessenter and citing a New York Times report that Irans creditworthiness in the bond market is under pressure. The post stemmed from Bessenters previous criticism of the Iranian government on social media. He stated that while Iranians struggle to afford even basic necessities, the "corrupt Iranian regime is squandering huge sums of money overseas," and that it should spend those billions on its own people instead of channeling them to so-called "terrorist proxies." Ghalibaf responded with almost identical statements: instead of investing heavily in Israel, a "terrorist proxy," and the approximately 750 US military bases worldwide, this "declining empire" could certainly use its money on its own people. "But wait, that might be too reasonable for this regime," he added. He then directly addressed Bessenter: "Scott, man, your credibility is in jeopardy. Do something worthwhile." The post also included a link to the New York Times report. According to the report, Bessenter attempted to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term US Treasury bond repurchase agreements, but the market response was lukewarm. With US debt already reaching $40 trillion and the situation in Iran exacerbating inflationary pressures, its ability to "tame" the bond market and its personal credit are facing increasing challenges.Conflict Situation: 1. The Israeli military claims to have shot down a Hezbollah drone. 2. The Israeli military decides to expand its troop deployment in the West Bank. 3. Sources: Israel launched an attack near the outskirts of Damascus, the Syrian capital. 4. Rezaei: If the US again "disrupts" Iran during its meeting with the Qatari Foreign Minister, Iran will strike the US military and its economic interests. Strait of Hormuz: 1. Iranian sources: Consultations on the details of the Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman are still ongoing. 2. Qatar and Iran discussed an agreement to implement a "joint project" to clear mines from the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Rezaei: The mediators have asked Iran to propose conditions for opening the Strait of Hormuz, and Tehran is preparing a list of conditions. 4. Rezaei: The US must take concrete steps to meet Irans conditions in order to reach an agreement before Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Peace Negotiations: 1. According to the Wall Street Journal: Sources familiar with the matter revealed that the Trump administration has repeatedly indicated to the mediators that it has no intention of re-accepting the terms of the memorandum of understanding reached with Iran in June of this year. 2. The White House: (Regarding Iran) There are currently no negotiations; all options are under consideration. Reiterates the US focus on economic isolation of Iran; the naval blockade remains in effect. Other matters: 1. Iran denies plans to assassinate Trumps youngest son. 2. British media: Israel considers expelling British officials from the Gaza Reconciliation Center. 3. Iranian President calls for strengthened economic cooperation among Muslim countries. 4. According to Saudi Arabias Al Arabiya TV: A senior Iranian official stated that due to the US naval blockade, Iran is unable to import enough fuel to compensate for insufficient domestic production. 5. Irans Oil Minister stated that despite reductions, Irans offshore oil sales and deliveries have not stopped. 6. Iranian officials inspect oil infrastructure on Kharg Island. 7. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament met with the Qatari Prime Minister to exchange views on easing regional tensions. 8. Iranian officials: There is no shortage of goods; the main problem is rising prices. 9. According to Kuwait News Agency (KUNA): Kuwait and Pakistan sign a defense agreement. 10. The US Department of Justice plans to reopen arrest trials to seize Iranian oil tankers.On August 28th, top Canadian economists told the countrys finance minister that the damage from the escalating trade war with the United States should be manageable, potentially bolstering Prime Minister Carneys confidence in withdrawing from negotiations. The finance minister reportedly convened a closed-door meeting in Toronto with chief economists, including those representing several of Canadas largest banks, to discuss the economic outlook following the breakdown of trade talks with the US. While some economists lowered their economic growth forecasts and warned that new US tariffs on hundreds of Canadian goods could hit small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) hardest, some attendees revealed that discussions about the risk of recession were minimal. Instead, participants generally agreed that the Canadian economy was strong enough to withstand the series of tariffs imposed by Trump. Some economists stated that tariffs would indeed cause damage, but the impact would likely be concentrated primarily in the sectors affected by the tariffs.U.S. Treasury officials say bond yields will fall as inflation gradually cools; the Trump administration is committed to lowering long-term bond yields.On August 28, Rezaei, secretary of Irans Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran has prepared a list of conditions to present to the United States. While temporary passage through a specific channel in the middle of the Strait of Hormuz has been permitted, future passage through the strait will be subject to a memorandum of understanding signed with the United States.

NYMEX crude oil expected to fall to $75.12

Oct 26, 2021 10:59

On Thursday (October 7), international oil prices were under pressure for the second consecutive trading day, and US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, triggering concerns about demand. Earlier, OPEC+ has expressed concern that demand and prices may weaken. NYMEX crude oil is expected to fall to $75.12.

GMT+8 14:05, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.49% to 77.04 US dollars/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.04% to 81.14 US dollars/barrel.


Overnight, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil closed down 2.52% and 2.10%, respectively, despite the intraday highs of $79.78/barrel since November 10, 2014 and $83.47/barrel since October 10, 2018.

ANZ Bank said in a report: “According to EIA data, US commercial crude oil inventories rose last week and gasoline inventories also surged, raising concerns about weak demand.”

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday (October 6) that as of the week of October 1, crude oil inventories increased by 2.345 million barrels to 420.9 million barrels, an increase much higher than market expectations of 796,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories unexpectedly soared by 325.6 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 69,000 barrels; distillate stocks fell by 396,000 barrels, which was less than the expected decrease of 844,000 barrels.

Global oil prices have jumped by more than 50% this year, increasing inflationary pressure, which may slow the recovery of the economy from the new crown epidemic and affect consumer demand. Natural gas and coal prices are also climbing.

Sources said on Wednesday that as oil prices hit multi-year highs, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) decided earlier this week to stick to a plan to gradually increase oil production, partly because of concerns that demand and prices may weaken.

On the daily chart, U.S. oil is in an upward ((3)) wave that started from $61.74 and broke through the 23.6% target of $78.37. The upper resistance looks at the $80 mark and the ((3)) wave 38.2% target of 88.66. Dollar.

On the hourly chart, oil prices are in the 4 downward waves that started from 79.78 US dollars, falling below the 3 waves 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 76.90 US dollars, and the lower support looks to the 3 waves 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 75.12 US dollars. Waves 3 and 4 are both sub-waves of the upward (1) wave that started from $61.74. (1) Waves are the sub-waves of ((3)) waves.