EUR/USD
1.17463
-0.300%
Gold
4705.28
-0.619%
Oil
97.596
2.237%
USD/JPY
157.495
0.174%
GBP/USD
1.35128
-0.708%
GBP/JPY
212.824
-0.530%
Real-time News
On May 12th, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jean-Claude Nagel stated that the ECB would have to raise interest rates if the oil shock triggered by the Iran war threatens the anchor of inflation expectations in the Eurozone; he reiterated that the ECB might raise rates in June. Nagel said, "If the impact of such a shock proves to be significant or persistent—especially if it threatens the anchor of long-term inflation expectations—then, in accordance with our mandate, we must act." He added, "We also discussed the possibility of a rate hike (last month). Therefore, we will observe developments over the next few weeks. We will hold a meeting in June, at which time we will make a decision based on the latest data."On May 12th, yields on long-term UK government bonds surged. The yield on 20-year bonds rose to 5.734%, the highest since July 1998, up 12 basis points on the day; the yield on 30-year bonds rose to 5.794%, the highest level since May 1998, up 11 basis points on the day. The main reason for the sharp rise in yields was the further weakening of Prime Minister Starmers governing position, with a growing number of Labour MPs calling for his resignation. The rise in long-term bond yields reflects, to some extent, concerns about fiscal sustainability. UK bond investors are worried that Starmers successor may further increase borrowing. Financial markets are closely watching for signs of significant divisions among members of the UK government cabinet.May 12th - The US April CPI is expected to rise 3.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since September 2023; the March increase was 3.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.3% last month, and is likely to be rounded to 0.4%. March saw a 0.2% increase. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the CPI report, is expected to make a one-time adjustment to rents and landlord-equivalent rents. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, stated, "The April report will include actual data for this portion of the rent sample, which should have a significant catch-up effect. We expect this particular factor to increase the core CPI increase by about 0.1 percentage points for the month."ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The baseline scenario includes two rate hikes.ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Our mission requires us to act when inflation expectations become unanchored, and we will see the results in June.
