EUR/USD 1.09423
-0.992%
Gold 3036.33
-2.501%
Oil 62.471
-5.781%
USD/JPY 146.825
0.520%
GBP/USD 1.28724
-1.731%
GBP/JPY 189.004
-1.200%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

Multi-Day Bounce Expected for The S&P500

Cory Russell

Apr 21, 2022 10:17


微信截图_20220421101455.png


A daily candlestick chart of the SPX with a thorough EWP count and a number of technical indicators.


The manner in which the adjustment should take place.


The two-week decrease from the late-March high (red, intermediate wave-b) should have required a multi-day correction, but the recent rebound off the 4370 low has only lasted one day, although the decline was two weeks.


B-waves, in fact, are made up of three smaller waves: a, b, and c. Despite the fact that the index has already reached the bottom end of the ideal (green) minor-b/2 wave's goal zone (see Figure 1), wave-a of b/2 is most likely still incomplete. 


As a result, depending on where the more tiny wave-b bottoms and how far wave-c extends, I estimate a retreat to 4410-4430 for (grey) minute wave-b before wave-c of b/2 takes hold and rallies the index back to about 4500-4535 (upper grey target zone) (1.0x a or 1.618x a).

In conclusion

The S&P500 index bottomed exactly where I said it would, at 4375 vs. 4370, and then produced the expected rebound. This gain should be part of a multi-day bounce, with a short-term retreat to 4410-4430 preferably started before the Bulls can rally the market to 4500-4535, which corresponds nicely with my original prediction of a high of about SPX4500+/-25 last week.


I still foresee a drop to SPX4150+/-25 (green c/3) and below (red arrows). It will need a break above SPX4435 to indicate that something else is happening (green arrow). As a result, "all we can do is predict, monitor, and modify," as I usually say.

Suggestion