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On February 25, Bank of America Securities published a research report pointing out that Standard Chartered Bank (02888.HK) had mixed performance in the fourth quarter, including the reclassification of US$147 million in deposit insurance, which was also recognized in net interest income, but will be reclassified as cost again from the fourth quarter of 2024. The bank said that based on the good performance of revenue in the fourth quarter of last year and the long-term high interest rate environment, the groups earnings per share forecast for 2025 to 2027 will be raised by 1% to 6%, and the net interest income forecast for 2025 to 2027 will be raised by 8% to 9%. The bank said that it would raise its target price from HK$99.35 to HK$112, and reiterate its rating as underperforming the market.The main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) narrowed its intraday decline to 0.67% and is now reported at 1,862 points, having previously fallen by more than 4.00%.On February 25, according to Tesla, the company released a software update, which includes: Autopilot automatic assisted driving on urban roads (optimizing the existing NOA automatic assisted navigation driving function) and other functions.Hong Kong-listed biotech stocks fluctuated and strengthened, with CanSino Biologics (06185.HK) rising more than 11%, Ascletis Pharma (01672.HK) rising more than 9%, Transcenta Holdings (06628.HK) rising nearly 8%, CTBC Pharmaceuticals (02410.HK) rising more than 6.5%, CStone Pharmaceuticals (02616.HK) and NewYork Pharmaceuticals (01952.HK) both rising more than 4%.On February 25, oil prices rose for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as the United States imposed new sanctions on Middle Eastern oil producer Iran, exacerbating market concerns about possible tightening of supply. So far, WTI crude oil has risen by 1% and Brent crude oil has risen by 0.85%. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said that WTI crude oil is seeking a support area of 65-70 US dollars per barrel. As long as prices remain above this range, there will be a recovery. According to the survey, Iran is the third largest oil producer in OPEC, with production of 3.2 million barrels per day in January. But the uncertainty of the demand outlook has limited the rise in oil prices. In addition, the market sees the warming of relations between Trump and Russia as a potential signal of easing sanctions on Russia, which will then increase global oil supply.

Multi-Day Bounce Expected for The S&P500

Cory Russell

Apr 21, 2022 10:17


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A daily candlestick chart of the SPX with a thorough EWP count and a number of technical indicators.


The manner in which the adjustment should take place.


The two-week decrease from the late-March high (red, intermediate wave-b) should have required a multi-day correction, but the recent rebound off the 4370 low has only lasted one day, although the decline was two weeks.


B-waves, in fact, are made up of three smaller waves: a, b, and c. Despite the fact that the index has already reached the bottom end of the ideal (green) minor-b/2 wave's goal zone (see Figure 1), wave-a of b/2 is most likely still incomplete. 


As a result, depending on where the more tiny wave-b bottoms and how far wave-c extends, I estimate a retreat to 4410-4430 for (grey) minute wave-b before wave-c of b/2 takes hold and rallies the index back to about 4500-4535 (upper grey target zone) (1.0x a or 1.618x a).

In conclusion

The S&P500 index bottomed exactly where I said it would, at 4375 vs. 4370, and then produced the expected rebound. This gain should be part of a multi-day bounce, with a short-term retreat to 4410-4430 preferably started before the Bulls can rally the market to 4500-4535, which corresponds nicely with my original prediction of a high of about SPX4500+/-25 last week.


I still foresee a drop to SPX4150+/-25 (green c/3) and below (red arrows). It will need a break above SPX4435 to indicate that something else is happening (green arrow). As a result, "all we can do is predict, monitor, and modify," as I usually say.

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