EUR/USD
1.17475
-0.430%
Gold
3323.88
-0.985%
Oil
66.419
-0.450%
USD/JPY
145.011
0.950%
GBP/USD
1.36288
-0.046%
GBP/JPY
197.639
0.954%
Real-time News
On July 3, according to CMEs "Fed Watch": The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 24%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 71%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 5%. Before the release of the non-agricultural data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July was 76.7, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut was 23.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 4.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 73.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 21.8%.July 3, data released on Thursday showed that hiring surged more than expected in June as companies coped with tariff uncertainty. The United States added 147,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, close to its historical low. In recent months, the main indicators of the economy have proved resilient, overcoming concerns about rising inflation and a possible economic downturn. Employment has maintained a solid pace and has been less disrupted than some economists expected. In June, the number of federal government jobs in the United States fell by 7,000, and the total number of federal government jobs has fallen by 69,000 since Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency in January. Employment in the manufacturing industry has hardly changed, and Trump has been trying to boost the manufacturing industry by imposing tariffs on foreign goods.Trumps rapid response team commented on non-farm payrolls: The US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, "far exceeding expectations", which is the fourth consecutive month that it has exceeded expectations. This is the "Trump effect!".Data showed that non-farm employment in the U.S. oil and gas extraction industry fell by about 500 in June from the previous month and by about 900 from the same period last year.July 3, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the seasonally adjusted number of initial unemployment claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000 in the week ending June 28, hitting a six-week low since mid-May and lower than the 240,000 forecast by economists. However, the total number of continuing unemployment claims in the week ending June 21 remained at a high of 1.964 million, the highest level since the fall of 2021.
