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On April 27th, data from the State Taxation Administration showed that in the year since the implementation of the "instant tax refund upon purchase" policy for departing tourists, the number of people applying nationwide has increased by 12.96 times year-on-year, while the sales volume and amount of tax refunds have increased by 9.35 times year-on-year, demonstrating rapid growth in business scale. It is understood that "instant tax refund upon purchase" means that in regions where the departing tourists have implemented the tax refund policy, when purchasing tax-refundable goods at "instant refund" stores, they can sign an agreement and pre-authorize their credit cards to receive a refund in RMB equivalent to the tax amount on-site at the store. The government actively encourages eligible tax refund stores to provide "instant refund upon purchase" services. Currently, there are over 8,000 tax refund stores nationwide offering this service, an increase of over 100% compared to when the policy was first rolled out nationwide a year ago.On April 27th, Kei Fujimoto, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated that the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75% on Tuesday. However, even if it pauses its actions, it doesnt necessarily mean a further postponement of interest rate hikes. He said, "The Bank of Japan has repeatedly emphasized that financial conditions remain accommodative, and its policy stance still leans towards tightening." The economist added, "If tensions in the Middle East ease and uncertainty decreases even slightly, the likelihood of a rate hike in June or July will increase."On April 27, the National Energy Administration (NEA) held a press conference. Pan Huimin, Deputy Director of the NEAs New Energy Department, stated that the next step will be to improve market trading mechanisms. This includes continuously improving the green certificate pricing mechanism, researching and formulating a green certificate price index and releasing it to the public in due course to stabilize enterprises expectations regarding green certificate prices. The NEA will also expand the scale of green certificate consumption, implement the requirements of the Energy Law of the Peoples Republic of China, establish a minimum renewable energy consumption target system, and guide more key energy-consuming industries to play a leading role in green electricity consumption. Furthermore, the NEA will promote "green vehicles charging green electricity" and residential green electricity retail packages to create a positive atmosphere for proactive green consumption throughout society.April 27th - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Tuesday. Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, stated that the market is currently paying close attention to the extent to which Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hint at a possible rate hike in June. Such comments will alter market expectations regarding the policy rate path and could potentially impact the Japanese government bond yield curve.On April 27th, Kei Fujimoto, an economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, stated that the yen is likely to remain weak regardless of how the situation in the Middle East develops. He said, "Even if the conflict with Iran eases, oil prices are likely to remain high given the continued supply constraints. Concerns about deteriorating fiscal conditions and a weakening trade balance are expected to persist, making it difficult for the yen to appreciate in the short term." He also pointed out that given the current yen weakness is driven more by economic fundamentals than speculative factors, the effectiveness of foreign exchange market intervention may be limited.

Markets Ponder a Fed Pivot

Florala Chen

Jul 29, 2022 15:28


MARKETS

Peak Fed hawkishness and dismal US growth statistics have assisted in the break-down of recent ranges in US rates and the entire curve, which has led to growth stock outperformance as traders consider a Fed Pivot.

The global benchmark (SPX) has increased by a significant 7% during the last two weeks. Additionally, the entire current 2Q earnings season falls inside this time frame. While I wouldn't go so far as to say that exceptional earnings have driven stock prices higher, I think it's fair to say that the market became a little bit excessively negative before to results, and we exceeded that benchmark.


However, what is good for Main Street may not always be the same as what is good for Wall Street. primarily because the financial markets by definition push "the good times" forward while the general populace experiences the devastation of a recession in real time.

Oil

Recent price volatility and lack of direction are a harsh reminder of the importance of speculators to the market.


However, the energy sector is the best place to observe the gap between Main Street and Wall Street today. Oil prices are struggling as a result of poor macroeconomic data, whereas anticipatory assets (stocks) are strongly surging on expectations of a Fed turn. The majority of adults who can drive are pinching pennies as they experience the effects of the economic downturn firsthand.


It still looks like traders need little explanation to reduce bullish wagers against a generally grim economic backdrop and the danger of a protracted economic slowdown, despite the softer Fed tone, which should eventually assist growth.