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Real-time News
The main contract for low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) fell 4.00% intraday, currently trading at 4034.00 yuan/ton.On June 16th, Wang Guanhua, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Deputy Director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that although the PPI (Producer Price Index) has increased, it remains relatively stable, with prices of consumer goods remaining stable. This is primarily due to the different meanings of PPI and CPI (Consumer Price Index). PPI increases exhibit a clear structural characteristic, reflecting prices in the industrial production sector, while CPI reflects prices in the consumer sector, covering all categories of consumer goods. CPI transmission is mainly concentrated in the industrial consumer goods sector, with food and service prices accounting for a larger share, and is less affected by fluctuations in industrial product prices. Secondly, from the perspective of price transmission patterns, upstream industrial product prices are directly affected by international commodity prices. However, the transmission of upstream product prices to downstream sectors along the industrial chain is influenced by factors such as market competition and technological progress, often showing a decreasing trend.Goldman Sachs: We expect Persian Gulf oil exports to recover to pre-war levels by the end of July, up from the previous forecast of the end of August.On June 16, Fu Linghui, spokesperson, chief economist, and director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that the widening decline in investment growth from January to May was due to the impact of high temperatures and heavy rainfall in some regions, and also reflects the shift in investment from quantitative expansion to quality improvement in the transformation of old and new growth drivers. Despite the decline in investment growth, the investment structure continued to optimize, driven by sustained policy efforts, innovation-led development, and enhanced livelihood security, playing an irreplaceable role in strengthening infrastructure, promoting transformation, and benefiting peoples livelihoods. Infrastructure investment grew steadily, investment in emerging industries grew rapidly, and investment in livelihood sectors continued to strengthen. Fu Linghui stated that in the next stage, my country still has ample room for investment. New urbanization, rural revitalization, the development of new productive forces, and the improvement of public services all require investment support. It is necessary to leverage the guiding role of government investment, stimulate the vitality of private investment, adhere to the close integration of investment in things and investment in people, pay more attention to optimizing and improving the investment structure and efficiency, and better leverage the important role of effective investment in promoting high-quality development.Interest Rate Hike Expectations: 1. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at this meeting, which is in line with consensus and market pricing. The central bank will then maintain a pace of approximately one rate hike every six months. 2. Mitsubishi UFJ: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week, with another rate hike later this year. Given that the 25 basis point rate hike has been fully priced in by the market, this move alone is unlikely to reverse the yens depreciation trend. 3. State Street: Expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at this meeting, raising them to the psychologically key level of 1.0%. The central bank may hint at a second rate hike this year. 4. Oxford Economics: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in June rather than July. A delay in the rate hike would disappoint financial markets and could lead to further yen depreciation. 5. Mizuho Bank: The probability of a rate hike at this meeting is high. The baseline scenario is that the central bank will subsequently raise rates approximately every six months. 6. Reuters Survey: 94% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its key interest rate to 1.00% in June and to raise it to 1.25% in the fourth quarter. 7. Former Chief Economist of the Bank of Japan, Seisaku Kameda: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates at this meeting, and the US-Iran peace agreement is not expected to change the expectation of two rate hikes this year. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is expected to reiterate the central banks determination to continue raising rates, but will avoid giving a clear hint about the timing of the next rate hike. QT Expectations: 1. Mizuho Bank: The Bank of Japan is expected to conduct a mid-term assessment of its bond-buying program at this meeting, and may maintain the current reduction plan until January to March next year; from April to June and beyond, it may suspend or slow down the reduction of monthly bond purchases. 2. Deutsche Securities: If the Bank of Japan decides to stop reducing the monthly bond purchase program, it must provide a full explanation. If the Bank of Japan decides to raise interest rates and stop reducing bond purchases at the same time, regardless of its true intentions, the market and the public may interpret it as a "political deal" reached with the government. Other Expectations: 1. Bank of America: The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October this year, followed by further rate hikes in March and July 2027, raising the terminal interest rate to 1.75% by the end of 2027.
