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According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, a meeting was held this morning by relevant departments. The meeting required all pig farming companies to report their annual production targets and to fulfill their commitments to reduce production, including reducing the number of breeding sows and the number of pigs slaughtered annually.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a monetary policy press conference in ten minutes.According to Irans Nour News, Irans ambassador to the United Nations stated in a letter to the UN Secretary-General that the United Arab Emirates bears responsibility for compensation for "allowing the United States to launch airstrikes against Iran from its territory."1. Reuters poll: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with 67 out of 72 economists surveyed predicting it will maintain rates at 2% until the end of 2026. 2. BNP Paribas: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but if the conflict escalates and the energy supply chain is severely damaged, the central bank is highly likely to be forced to restart the rate hike process. 3. Vanguard: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and is expected to remain on hold until the end of the year, but has eliminated its previous downward bias on the policy rate outlook. 4. ABN AMRO: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but in a negative outlook, Eurozone inflation may be significantly higher than the baseline, and the ECB may raise rates starting in April. 5. Citigroup: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, with uncertainty providing a reason for remaining on hold, but the possibility of several precautionary rate hikes cannot be ruled out. 6. Goldman Sachs: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but in the event of an extremely unfavorable energy situation, the bank may raise rates by 25 basis points three times consecutively starting in June, or even in April. 7. Ebury Group: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The war makes the next move more likely to be a rate hike than a rate cut. Lagarde is likely to say that "the ECB will not allow a dangerous surge in inflation." 8. TS Lombard: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Although pricing in a rate hike this year was too aggressive, the threshold for a rate hike next year has actually lowered, considering that higher natural gas prices are now the baseline scenario. 9. Danske Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while emphasizing vigilance against upside risks to inflation. Rising energy prices complicate the policy outlook, and policymakers are more inclined to maintain policy flexibility. 10. Berenberg Bank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Even if the war continues longer, the ECB will not raise rates until the second half of 2027 due to the economic stagnation caused by energy price shocks. 11. Nordeabank: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The March economic forecast may not have fully incorporated the impact of the war, and is expected to show slightly better economic growth and slightly lower inflation. 12. KfW: The ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, as current energy price increases have not lasted long enough to force the central bank to raise rates; the word "vigilance" may become a word frequently used by Lagarde. March 19 - According to information obtained from Iranian sources on March 19 local time, recent attacks by the United States and Israel on Iranian medical institutions have resulted in the deaths of at least 18 medical personnel.

Markets Gripped by Recession Fears, US CPI in Focus

Skylar Shaw

Jul 13, 2022 16:21

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Tuesday saw a sea of red on the Asian stock market as risk appetite was stifled by concerns about the recession and a resurgent Covid-19 outbreak in China.

 

Prior to the US inflation data and earnings season, Wall Street's major indexes suffered overnight as investors fled to safety. Europe's energy crisis and increased caution in front of important economic data and bank profits are anticipated to cause markets to start lower there.


The dollar index (DXY) reached its greatest levels since 2002 in the currency markets, flexing its safe-haven capabilities. In the meanwhile, prices reached 1.0004 for the first time since December 2002 this morning, bringing the EUR/USD parity fantasy that much closer to reality. When it comes to commodities, gold is still down and unpopular, while demand worries have caused oil prices to decline.


The unease and gloom that permeate the financial markets may drive up the dollar more while driving down stock prices. The next US CPI data on Wednesday may cause a commotion since markets are still very volatile and sensitive to anything related to inflation.


Consumer confidence in Australia fell for the eighth consecutive month in July according to statistics.


Amid rising inflation, impending rises, and global unease, business confidence also fell short of expectations. Later this morning, the ZEW economic confidence poll for Germany will be released. A negative assessment might exacerbate the euro's problems and further devalue the single currency.

The US inflation data is what's important.


Investors are eagerly awaiting the publication of the US inflation data on Wednesday to see if prices are increasing once again or whether we have reached a high. Inflation is predicted to increase 8.8 percent year-over-year in June compared to 8.6 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg survey.

If predictions come true, consumer prices will have risen at the quickest rate since December 1981 when they increased by 8.9 percent. Such a scenario is likely to support market predictions of more aggressive Fed rate rises and eventually give dollar bulls new energy.


On Thursday, it could be a good idea to pay attention to the weekly unemployment claims report in addition to the US inflation statistics. There will also be a flurry of important announcements at the end of the week, including the most recent retail sales, industrial output, and consumer sentiment, all of which will shed light on the state of the US economy.