Oil resumed its advance, reaching the highest settlement in over two years with the OPEC+ alliance forecasting a tightening global crude oil market. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to hit $80 per barrel going ahead.
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.1% on Tuesday, while global benchmark Brent settled above $70 a barrel for the first time since 2019.
“Demand is ramping up very quickly because everybody’s driving, and we have the reopening of Europe, which is really starting to happen,” said Francisco Blanch, global commodities and derivatives strategist at Bank of America. “India seems to have hit an inflection point, in terms of cases, which in my mind could mean you also get a return of mobility.”
Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said “the demand picture has shown clear signs of improvement,” while his Russian counterpart also spoke of the “gradual economic recovery.”
“People are looking more and more at a big travel season in the Northern Hemisphere, at least in Europe and the U.S.,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. “So the demand side looks good,” and with OPEC+ only gradually returning output and an Iran deal looking further off, “it looks like we could be in for a tight summer.”
Global oil demand may rebound to levels seen before the pandemic in a year, the International Energy Agency said, signaling a speedier recovery than its previous estimates.
“Demand in one year or so may well come back to the levels of before the crisis,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a Bloomberg Television interview. There’s a “strong” recovery in progress in the U.S., China and Europe.
Here Are the Stocks that Could Benefit
Oil shares have soared in 2021 after a dismal 2020. Some analysts assume shares have extra room to run.
Tudor Pickering Holt analysts say that upstream firms (that’s, producers) are up about 75% this yr, versus 12% for the
Nonetheless, “we continue to remain long on equity exposure as fundamentals continue to support high commodity prices for crude, natural gas liquids, and natural gas over the next six months,” they write.
The United States Oil Fund (USO.US) continued to rise on June 3 and closed at $46.970, a record high since April 3, 2020. USO has soared 40.35% this year.
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US), continued to rise on June 3, closing at $55.38. XLE has soared 43.06% this year.
Goldman suggests buyers ought to contemplate a “barbell strategy” with some publicity to more volatile names like Cenovus Energy,(CVE), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), Ovintiv, Diamondback Energy(FANG), and Liberty Oilfield Services(LBRT), in addition to “through the cycle winners” like Devon, Conoco,Hess (HES), Suncor Energy(SU), Exxon Mobil(XOM), Pioneer, Baker Hughes(BKR), and Schlumberger(SLB).
Another pattern that might bolster costs for a lot of months is the political shift happening in power proper now. Last week, Exxon buyers voted to appoint not less than two new administrators to the board after a marketing campaign by an activist investor trying to change the corporate’s insurance policies. The new administrators are seemingly to push Exxon to limit its drilling over the following few years each to preserve capital and to put together to shift extra sources towards climate-friendly insurance policies, analysts mentioned.
In addition, a Dutch courtroom demanded that Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) minimize its emissions extra drastically, and Chevron(CVX) shareholders voted for a proposal that might lead to decrease emissions.
These rulings and votes are seemingly to lead to much less oil being produced by massive firms within the subsequent few years. That will suppress provide and prop up costs, mentioned Rebecca Babin, a senior power dealer at CIBC Private Wealth Management, in an interview with Barron’s. In the close to time period, the businesses focused within the local weather campaigns are seemingly to profit.
“This could sound very counterintuitive—it’s positive for crude oil and for those companies,” she says. “Essentially, you’re going to see crude oil go higher, because there’s going to be less production, and there’s going to be this period of time where the energy transition hasn’t taken full seed yet where we still need a lot of fossil fuels and crude oil products.” Meanwhile, massive oil firms “are the main suppliers of a higher-priced commodity. That will help them “
“From a profitability standpoint, and in terms of how the stocks perform over the next two years, there are actually some positive things that will come out of that,” Babin says.
Oil price trends
1. Morgan Stanley oil strategist Martjin Rats expects demand will keep rising to 107 million barrels a day by 2033, from 100 million barrels at the start of 2020. To satisfy that increasing demand, Rats expects state-owned oil companies and private firms will have to ramp up production, and crude oil prices will need to rise to fund that expansion. Currently, public companies account for about half of oil supply. Prices might even have to rise to $80 a barrel to induce private companies and state-owned ones to cover the gap.
2. For now, oil production has not kept up with demand, as global economies rebound.
“Welcome to the post-pandemic world,” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit. “We’re seeing demand is growing rapidly between the first quarter and the third quarter by 7 million barrels a day.”
Yergin said his Brent target is an average of $70 per barrel this year.
“There’s an incredible case where the oil price could get to $80, but there would be a reaction to that. That would start to affect demand, and also there would be a political reaction to that,” said Yergin. “You’ll start to see phone calls being made. [President Joe] Biden has been in politics long enough to know that high gasoline prices are always a problem for whoever is president. That’s true even in eras of energy transitions.”
3. Energy analysts agree the world is in for a period of higher prices, but they do not agree how high or for how long. Francisco Blanch, global commodities and derivatives strategist at Bank of America believe Brent crude oil has already hit his $70 target for the quarter, but he has a much more bullish longer-term view than others.
“Demand is ramping up very quickly because everybody’s driving, and we have the reopening of Europe, which is starting to happen,” said Blanch. “India seems to have hit an inflection point, in terms of cases, which in my mind could mean you also get a return of mobility.”
“We think in the next three years we could see $100 barrels again, and we stand by that. That would be a 2022, 2023 story,” Blanch said. “Part of it is the fact we have OPEC kind of holding all the cards, and the market is not particularly price responsive on the supply side and there is a lot of pent-up demand ... We also have a lot of inflation everywhere. Oil has been lagging the rise in prices across the economy.”
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