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March 2nd - Economists at Capital Economics stated that the oil market could experience a short-term surge similar to that seen during last years 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, when crude oil prices briefly included a risk premium of around $10 to $15 per barrel before retreating. This scenario is likely to occur if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover quickly and the regions infrastructure proves to have suffered minimal lasting damage. Conversely, a more prolonged conflict would reduce the likelihood of this. These economists believe that in a moderate scenario, the fighting would drag on, risk premiums would remain high, but there would be no major supply disruptions, keeping oil prices in the $70 to $80 per barrel range for an extended period. According to the firm, only in a more severe scenario involving significant and lasting supply losses would oil prices potentially climb to $90 to $100 per barrel.March 2nd - According to a report by Chris Turner of ING, the euro may fall further due to rising energy prices triggered by military strikes in the Middle East. He noted, "Investors have overweighted the euro and European assets this year due to a bullish outlook for recovery, and this expectation will naturally be challenged this week by rising energy prices." Turner stated that unless the conflict de-escalates soon, the euro could fall towards 1.1575. He believes that the nature of this energy shock will benefit the dollar the most, reflecting the USs energy independence and the reduced likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to rising inflation prospects.An IDF spokesperson stated that, guided by precise intelligence, the IDF eliminated several senior officials of the Iranian intelligence service.A spokesperson for the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Qatar has not yet been in contact with the Iranian government.Asian liquefied natural gas benchmark prices (JKM) surged to $13.133 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on Monday, up $2.256 from Fridays close.

Investors May Turn From Crypto on Fed Interest Hike Hopes

Cory Russell

Apr 20, 2022 09:51


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  • This year, the Fed may raise its rate objective to as high as 3.5 percent.

  • According to economists, being overly proactive might lead to a lengthier slump.

  • This month, crypto markets have lost more than 12% of their value.


Cryptocurrencies may have an issue with interest rates; as soon as they start to rise, trade volumes drop and markets plummet.


As the Federal Reserve of the United States increases interest rates, as it did last month, investors may be drawn to riskier assets. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates from 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent in March, which is still a small increase but the first in almost three years.


President of the Federal Reserve Bank, James Bullard, has said that the central bank must work quickly in order to attain a rate of roughly 3.5 percent this year. According to April 18 estimates, this may be accomplished with successive half-point increments and even 75-point rises. At the Fed's meeting in early May, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated a 50-basis-point hike may be considered.

Defending Against Inflation

Central banks throughout the globe are stepping up their anti-inflation efforts, but many are expecting a lengthy and drawn-out war. Inflation in the United States is at a four-decade high of 8.5 percent, driving investors into safe-haven commodities like gold and Bitcoin (BTC).


Investor appetite for crypto assets looks to be decreasing as the interest rate recovery continues. Higher borrowing rates may also have an effect on people who are using leverage to invest in bitcoin.


On the other side, economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Monday that if the Fed raises its interest rate objective, gold and Bitcoin prices would rise.


He went on to say that the Fed may be afraid that failing to meet its objective "may force this economy into a longer-term recession, not just a short-term recession."


When fiat currencies are weak, bitcoin and crypto assets are in high demand; however, this has not been the case lately.

Cryptocurrency Markets Are In Decline

Since the beginning of the month, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has dropped 12.3 percent. As a consequence, the space industry has lost roughly $300 billion.


The overall market capitalization is now just under $2 trillion, down 34% from its all-time high of just over $3 trillion in November.


Markets have gained a tiny 2% in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend in digital assets remains gloomy, and this trend might continue for the remainder of the year.