International shipping prices have suddenly fallen sharply. Is there a hope for a complete restoration of the global supply chain?

International shipping prices have suddenly fallen sharply in recent days. The freight rate of standard containers from China to the west coast of the United States has fallen from US$20,000 in early September to US$16,000, a drop of more than 20%. Some freight companies even pointed out that the shipping costs from Ningbo Port and Shanghai to the West Coast of the United States have fallen from the cumulative increase in the past three months in the past three trading days. This situation has surprised many market observers.

But in any case, the adjustment of shipping prices between China and the United States has regained the dawn of many foreign trade SMEs that had suffered from soaring freight rates. Industry insiders pointed out that this price correction is a normal phenomenon. With the cyclical reduction of orders and increased shipping capacity, shipping prices may gradually return to a rational level.

Previously, on the one hand, the new crown epidemic disrupted the global shipping chain, resulting in a shortage of sailors and dockers, causing terminal congestion in many countries around the world, and the renewed demand brought about by the economic recovery and the warming of the trade environment has further promoted global ocean freight rates. Soaring. In this context, the China-Western US route has risen from the usual US$5,000 to US$22,000, causing many small and medium-sized foreign trade companies to complain because the value of goods with low added value cannot even cover the freight.

However, although the shipping prices of some routes such as China and the United States have corrected, they are still at a high level compared to before the epidemic. The market is still hoping that the tight capacity caused by the epidemic will be further eased in the future. But no matter as scheduled, dawn has already appeared. Recently, the Baltic Freight Index (FBX) data shows that the global container freight index has fallen from US$11,109 on September 10 to US$9,949 on October 8. Among them, the biggest decline is the popular route China/East Asia-West America. The index price has fallen for four consecutive weeks. It was 20,586 USD/FEU on September 10, and fell to 16,044 USD/FEU on October 8, a drop of nearly 5,000 USD. 22.25%.

There is even the latest quotation showing that the freight from Shenzhen/Yantian Port to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port in the United States has dropped to US$8,300, which is directly cut in comparison to the Baltic Freight Index (FBX) price. However, some insiders said that the sharply lower than the market price may be a temporary adjustment to release the position, or it may be a "scalper" dumping the counter to lower the price.

Insiders in the shipping industry pointed out that, on the one hand, shipping capacity began to recover as the impact of the epidemic continued to fade. On the other hand, the domestic National Day holiday superimposed on the power and production restrictions of manufacturing companies also reduced some of the transportation demand. Under the two-way impact of the supply and demand of shipping resources, the situation It's changed. However, despite the recent correction of shipping prices, they are still at a high level, and continue to exert great pressure on global trade and consumption costs. The frequent shortage of shipping spaces is still waiting for the market outlook to be further eased.

Analysts pointed out that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of crew members in the global shipping industry has decreased by as much as 200,000. In addition, the loading and unloading capacity of the port has reached its limit, the shortage of trailer drivers, and the lack of supporting capacity in the rear are all because the epidemic has affected the efficiency of turnover. Once the epidemic recurs in the future, shipping capacity will still face pressure.

However, analysts also emphasized that from a rational point of view, the freight rate from China to the US of more than US$20,000 is not normal. After the Spring Festival next year, the freight rate will continue to return to normal prices. The recent price drop is precisely predictable. However, next year, the continued correction of shipping prices will still be a certain trend.