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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

International shipping prices have suddenly fallen sharply. Is there a hope for a complete restoration of the global supply chain?

Oct 26, 2021 11:05

International shipping prices have suddenly fallen sharply in recent days. The freight rate of standard containers from China to the west coast of the United States has fallen from US$20,000 in early September to US$16,000, a drop of more than 20%. Some freight companies even pointed out that the shipping costs from Ningbo Port and Shanghai to the West Coast of the United States have fallen from the cumulative increase in the past three months in the past three trading days. This situation has surprised many market observers.

But in any case, the adjustment of shipping prices between China and the United States has regained the dawn of many foreign trade SMEs that had suffered from soaring freight rates. Industry insiders pointed out that this price correction is a normal phenomenon. With the cyclical reduction of orders and increased shipping capacity, shipping prices may gradually return to a rational level.

Previously, on the one hand, the new crown epidemic disrupted the global shipping chain, resulting in a shortage of sailors and dockers, causing terminal congestion in many countries around the world, and the renewed demand brought about by the economic recovery and the warming of the trade environment has further promoted global ocean freight rates. Soaring. In this context, the China-Western US route has risen from the usual US$5,000 to US$22,000, causing many small and medium-sized foreign trade companies to complain because the value of goods with low added value cannot even cover the freight.

However, although the shipping prices of some routes such as China and the United States have corrected, they are still at a high level compared to before the epidemic. The market is still hoping that the tight capacity caused by the epidemic will be further eased in the future. But no matter as scheduled, dawn has already appeared. Recently, the Baltic Freight Index (FBX) data shows that the global container freight index has fallen from US$11,109 on September 10 to US$9,949 on October 8. Among them, the biggest decline is the popular route China/East Asia-West America. The index price has fallen for four consecutive weeks. It was 20,586 USD/FEU on September 10, and fell to 16,044 USD/FEU on October 8, a drop of nearly 5,000 USD. 22.25%.

There is even the latest quotation showing that the freight from Shenzhen/Yantian Port to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port in the United States has dropped to US$8,300, which is directly cut in comparison to the Baltic Freight Index (FBX) price. However, some insiders said that the sharply lower than the market price may be a temporary adjustment to release the position, or it may be a "scalper" dumping the counter to lower the price.

Insiders in the shipping industry pointed out that, on the one hand, shipping capacity began to recover as the impact of the epidemic continued to fade. On the other hand, the domestic National Day holiday superimposed on the power and production restrictions of manufacturing companies also reduced some of the transportation demand. Under the two-way impact of the supply and demand of shipping resources, the situation It's changed. However, despite the recent correction of shipping prices, they are still at a high level, and continue to exert great pressure on global trade and consumption costs. The frequent shortage of shipping spaces is still waiting for the market outlook to be further eased.

Analysts pointed out that since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of crew members in the global shipping industry has decreased by as much as 200,000. In addition, the loading and unloading capacity of the port has reached its limit, the shortage of trailer drivers, and the lack of supporting capacity in the rear are all because the epidemic has affected the efficiency of turnover. Once the epidemic recurs in the future, shipping capacity will still face pressure.

However, analysts also emphasized that from a rational point of view, the freight rate from China to the US of more than US$20,000 is not normal. After the Spring Festival next year, the freight rate will continue to return to normal prices. The recent price drop is precisely predictable. However, next year, the continued correction of shipping prices will still be a certain trend.

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