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International oil prices have slowed down, and investors are weighing two factors

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fell due to concerns that as major economies struggle to cope with inflation and supply chain issues, oil demand growth will decline, but soaring prices of power generation fuels such as coal and natural gas limit the decline in oil prices.

At 15:22 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.10% to US$80.56/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.06% to US$83.37/barrel.


The two major contracts fell by nearly 1% earlier. Data released by China, the world's largest crude oil importer, showed that imports in September fell 15% from the same period last year. However, Asia and Europe are still deep in the quagmire of coal and natural gas shortages.

The oil market has benefited from high fuel prices for power generation. An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

Oil observers remain focused on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation. Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at the brokerage firm OANDA, said: “It takes a substantial drop in natural gas and coal prices to curb oil prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic. However, the IMF moderately revised up the growth forecasts of some commodity exporting countries, such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, due to rising prices of commodities such as oil.

Three people familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia will require foreign companies in the energy industry, including petrochemical and desalination sectors, to increase local investment to at least 70% before they can obtain government contracts. This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's promotion of economic diversification, aiming to create tens of thousands of jobs for young Saudis and reduce their dependence on crude oil income.

According to data released by data analysis company Enverus on Tuesday, the U.S. crude oil and gas industry's transaction volume in the third quarter of 2021 fell from its two-year high in the previous quarter as the industry cooled off from post-pandemic consolidation and focused on selling Non-core assets.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the rebound in oil prices is widening the economic gap between oil exporters and importers in the Middle East and North Africa. IIF pointed out that by the end of 2022, public foreign investment in the Gulf countries-including foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds-will increase to more than 3 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 170% of GDP.

The current account surplus of oil-producing countries this year will reach 165 billion U.S. dollars, and the current account surplus next year will reach 138 billion U.S. dollars. Based on crude oil price forecasts of US$71 per barrel this year and US$66 next year, the current account deficit last year was US$6 billion.

In contrast, for the importing countries Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan, the total current account deficit this year will increase from US$27 billion in 2020 to US$35 billion this year. This is mainly due to the cost of crude oil imports. Rise and decline in tourism revenue.

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