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On January 31, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko stated that the best guarantee for Ukraines security is a concrete guarantee of Russias security, a guarantee that no one in the West has offered. He emphasized, "If we believe that Ukrainian territory will not be used as a bridgehead threatening Russias security, then Ukraines security will also be guaranteed." The Russian Foreign Ministry previously stated that any scenario involving NATO member states deploying troops in Ukraine is absolutely unacceptable to Russia and could lead to a sharp escalation of the situation. The Russian Foreign Ministry also stated that statements from Britain and other European countries regarding the possible deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine are incitement to continue the conflict.January 31st - According to Yahoo Finance, Kevin Warsh, President Trumps nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, appeared in newly released Epstein case documents released by the US government on Friday. The documents show that Warshs name was listed in the email guest list for the "2010 St. Barths Christmas" event, alongside figures such as Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich; he also attended a dinner hosted by British aristocrat William Astor. This revelation occurred on the same day Warsh was nominated for Fed chairman. His main controversy previously stemmed from his relationship with Republican donor Ronald Lauder, who was accused of influencing Trumps interest in Greenland during his first term and holding business interests there. Warsh may now need to address his relationship with Epstein and his 2010 Christmas trip, and there is also speculation that Trumps nomination is related to their shared social circle.January 31 – With the House of Representatives in recess and unable to consider the appropriations bill, the U.S. federal government entered a technical, partial shutdown at midnight local time on January 31. Analysts point out that although the shutdown is expected to be short-lived, it once again highlights the structural predicament of U.S. fiscal politics. In recent years, temporary funding, short-term extensions, and marginal shutdowns have become the norm in congressional budget battles, with government operations frequently hampered by political disagreements. Currently, the market generally believes that the direct impact of this technical shutdown on financial markets and economic operations is limited, but if subsequent congressional negotiations are again stalled, the risk of a prolonged shutdown and a wider impact cannot be ruled out.January 31st - The US government officially began a partial shutdown early this morning local time. This followed the Senates passage of a spending bill to fund most federal government departments, which was then submitted to the House of Representatives for consideration. However, because House members were not in Washington and would not return until Monday (February 2nd), the Senate vote could not prevent a partial government shutdown.January 31st - According to the UKs Daily Telegraph, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer responded to US President Trumps remarks on Sino-British cooperation in Shanghai on the 30th, stating that ignoring China would be "unwise." "It would be unwise to simply say we should ignore it. You know, French President Macron has already visited (China) and had exchanges, and German Chancellor Merz is also coming to exchange views," Starmer said. "It would not be in our national interest for Britain to be the only country refusing to engage (with China)." Starmer added, "In the past 24 hours, the opening of market access has been warmly welcomed by the business community. They have reported a change in the atmosphere and a significant increase in willingness to cooperate. This is good for our economy."

International oil prices have slowed down, and investors are weighing two factors

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fell due to concerns that as major economies struggle to cope with inflation and supply chain issues, oil demand growth will decline, but soaring prices of power generation fuels such as coal and natural gas limit the decline in oil prices.

At 15:22 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.10% to US$80.56/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.06% to US$83.37/barrel.


The two major contracts fell by nearly 1% earlier. Data released by China, the world's largest crude oil importer, showed that imports in September fell 15% from the same period last year. However, Asia and Europe are still deep in the quagmire of coal and natural gas shortages.

The oil market has benefited from high fuel prices for power generation. An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

Oil observers remain focused on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation. Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at the brokerage firm OANDA, said: “It takes a substantial drop in natural gas and coal prices to curb oil prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic. However, the IMF moderately revised up the growth forecasts of some commodity exporting countries, such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, due to rising prices of commodities such as oil.

Three people familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia will require foreign companies in the energy industry, including petrochemical and desalination sectors, to increase local investment to at least 70% before they can obtain government contracts. This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's promotion of economic diversification, aiming to create tens of thousands of jobs for young Saudis and reduce their dependence on crude oil income.

According to data released by data analysis company Enverus on Tuesday, the U.S. crude oil and gas industry's transaction volume in the third quarter of 2021 fell from its two-year high in the previous quarter as the industry cooled off from post-pandemic consolidation and focused on selling Non-core assets.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the rebound in oil prices is widening the economic gap between oil exporters and importers in the Middle East and North Africa. IIF pointed out that by the end of 2022, public foreign investment in the Gulf countries-including foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds-will increase to more than 3 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 170% of GDP.

The current account surplus of oil-producing countries this year will reach 165 billion U.S. dollars, and the current account surplus next year will reach 138 billion U.S. dollars. Based on crude oil price forecasts of US$71 per barrel this year and US$66 next year, the current account deficit last year was US$6 billion.

In contrast, for the importing countries Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan, the total current account deficit this year will increase from US$27 billion in 2020 to US$35 billion this year. This is mainly due to the cost of crude oil imports. Rise and decline in tourism revenue.

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