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On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.USD/CNY reported 7.1889, up 96 points (RMB depreciation); EUR/CNY reported 7.8414, up 588 points; HKD/CNY reported 0.92353, up 8.6 points; GBP/CNY reported 9.3903, up 740 points; AUD/CNY reported 4.5185, down 188 points; CAD/CNY reported 5.0650, up 142 points; JPY/CNY reported 4.8767, up 543 points; RMB/RUB reported 11.6222, down 103 points; NZD/CNY reported 4.1367, up 77 points; RMB/RMB reported 0.61947, up 27.1 points; CHF/CNY reported 8.1915, up 424 points; SGD/CNY reported 5.3478, down 143 points.Hang Seng Index futures opened down 2.64% at 22,600 points, 624 points below the water level.On April 3, James Surowiecki, a famous financial journalist, wrote that he had just figured out where these false tariff rates in the United States came from. They dont actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say. Instead, for each country, they just divide the US trade deficit with that country by the countrys exports to the United States. So the United States has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia, and its exports to the United States are $28 billion, $17.9/$28 = 64% (the United States imposes a 32% reciprocal tariff on Indonesia), and Trump claims that this is the tariff rate imposed by Indonesia on the United States. What a ridiculous thing. Netizens found that similar calculations apply to the European Union and Vietnam.

International oil prices have slowed down, and investors are weighing two factors

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fell due to concerns that as major economies struggle to cope with inflation and supply chain issues, oil demand growth will decline, but soaring prices of power generation fuels such as coal and natural gas limit the decline in oil prices.

At 15:22 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.10% to US$80.56/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.06% to US$83.37/barrel.


The two major contracts fell by nearly 1% earlier. Data released by China, the world's largest crude oil importer, showed that imports in September fell 15% from the same period last year. However, Asia and Europe are still deep in the quagmire of coal and natural gas shortages.

The oil market has benefited from high fuel prices for power generation. An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

Oil observers remain focused on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation. Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at the brokerage firm OANDA, said: “It takes a substantial drop in natural gas and coal prices to curb oil prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic. However, the IMF moderately revised up the growth forecasts of some commodity exporting countries, such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, due to rising prices of commodities such as oil.

Three people familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia will require foreign companies in the energy industry, including petrochemical and desalination sectors, to increase local investment to at least 70% before they can obtain government contracts. This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's promotion of economic diversification, aiming to create tens of thousands of jobs for young Saudis and reduce their dependence on crude oil income.

According to data released by data analysis company Enverus on Tuesday, the U.S. crude oil and gas industry's transaction volume in the third quarter of 2021 fell from its two-year high in the previous quarter as the industry cooled off from post-pandemic consolidation and focused on selling Non-core assets.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the rebound in oil prices is widening the economic gap between oil exporters and importers in the Middle East and North Africa. IIF pointed out that by the end of 2022, public foreign investment in the Gulf countries-including foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds-will increase to more than 3 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 170% of GDP.

The current account surplus of oil-producing countries this year will reach 165 billion U.S. dollars, and the current account surplus next year will reach 138 billion U.S. dollars. Based on crude oil price forecasts of US$71 per barrel this year and US$66 next year, the current account deficit last year was US$6 billion.

In contrast, for the importing countries Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan, the total current account deficit this year will increase from US$27 billion in 2020 to US$35 billion this year. This is mainly due to the cost of crude oil imports. Rise and decline in tourism revenue.