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On January 28th, Westpac joined other major banks in predicting a 25 basis point rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its February meeting. Westpac believes that persistently high inflation has cast a "decisive vote" for policy tightening, while maintaining its basic assessment that this rate hike will be a one-off move, not the start of a long-term rate hike cycle. Westpac argues that accurately identifying spare capacity in an economy nearing full employment and full capacity utilization is difficult. In this environment, inflation outcomes become the most reliable policy guide. The bank points out that underlying inflationary momentum is currently higher than the level needed for a smooth return to the RBAs 2-3% target range, leaving the RBA with little room to delay action. Nevertheless, Westpac does not expect automatic and continuous rate hikes. Current policy is considered to be at a restrictive level, and the remaining task of cooling inflation is relatively modest. The most likely outcome is a wait-and-see approach after February, while clearly conveying that the RBA is prepared to act again if inflation fails to slow as expected.On January 28th, Pang Xiaogang, Vice Chairman of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will further promote the "AI+" special action in the next step. First, they will strengthen investment-driven development. This includes planning the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategic plan for artificial intelligence for central SOEs, accelerating the construction and efficient utilization of information and communication networks, the national integrated computing power network, and domestic intelligent computing clusters, and promoting high-quality industrial development through effective investment. Second, they will deepen scenario cultivation. Focusing on key areas such as embodied intelligence and energy and power, they will explore the establishment of "AI+" industrial communities, increase the openness of scenarios, and create more comprehensive major scenarios, industry-integrated scenarios, and high-value niche scenarios. Third, they will optimize data supply. Under the premise of security and compliance, they will accelerate the open development of data resources in key areas such as transportation and logistics, smart energy, green and low-carbon development, and financial services, providing strong support for model optimization and iteration, intelligent computing facility construction and use, and large-scale application in industry scenarios.On January 28, Zhang Jianlong, Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Bureau of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that SASAC is currently drafting a working document on promoting the cultivation of emerging pillar industries by central enterprises, guiding them to achieve leapfrog development from major project investment, cultivation of leading enterprises, and breakthroughs in key areas to the overall optimization of the layout of the state-owned economy.On January 28th, Zhang Jianlong, Director of the Science and Technology Innovation Bureau of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC), stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that this year, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) will vigorously strengthen independent innovation and original innovation to provide strong support for achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and building a strong science and technology nation. The focus will be on three key areas: First, increasing the supply of high-quality science and technology. This includes strengthening research on key core technologies, increasing the proportion of investment in basic research, deepening the construction of original technology sources, concentrating efforts to overcome a number of radiating, global, and strategic technologies, and producing more original and leading major scientific and technological achievements. Second, promoting efficient technology transfer. This involves leveraging the dual driving role of central SOEs in the innovation chain and application scenarios, accelerating the construction of a number of pilot-scale verification platforms, increasing the procurement of first-of-its-kind, first-batch, and first-version equipment, and promoting the transformation of more innovative achievements into real productivity. Third, building a high-level innovation ecosystem. This involves fully leveraging the integrating role of central SOEs in the innovation chain, industrial chain, and capital chain, strengthening industry-university-research collaboration, creating a joint innovation system with shared investment, shared benefits, and shared risks, and helping to enhance the advantages of the national innovation system.On January 28th, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council held a regular press conference. According to Taiwanese media reports, in order to "prevent children from accessing inappropriate content and potential cybersecurity risks," Taiwans "Data Development Department" has for the first time proposed a "List of High-Risk Cybersecurity Apps," including Douyin, Weibo, WeChat, Xiaohongshu, and Baidu Cloud, for the education departments reference. What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhang Han stated that the DPP authorities hype about so-called "cybersecurity risks" regarding mainland applications is malicious. Their actions—depriving Taiwanese people, especially young people, of their right to know and freedom to use social media platforms, blocking cross-strait exchange channels, and deliberately inciting so-called "resistance against China and protection of Taiwan"—expose their inner fear and anxiety. The DPP authorities willful actions will inevitably backfire. Their perverse actions cannot stop the public opinion of Taiwanese people, especially young people, to understand the mainland and to get to know and be close to their mainland compatriots.

International oil prices have slowed down, and investors are weighing two factors

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

On Wednesday (October 13), international oil prices fell due to concerns that as major economies struggle to cope with inflation and supply chain issues, oil demand growth will decline, but soaring prices of power generation fuels such as coal and natural gas limit the decline in oil prices.

At 15:22 GMT+8, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.10% to US$80.56/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.06% to US$83.37/barrel.


The two major contracts fell by nearly 1% earlier. Data released by China, the world's largest crude oil importer, showed that imports in September fell 15% from the same period last year. However, Asia and Europe are still deep in the quagmire of coal and natural gas shortages.

The oil market has benefited from high fuel prices for power generation. An analyst from the Research Department of ANZ Bank said in a research report: "More and more people expect that the high prices of natural gas and thermal coal may boost the demand for alternative fuels such as diesel and fuel oil."

Oil observers remain focused on whether the soaring prices of natural gas and coal will lead to an increase in demand for petroleum products for power generation. Jeffrey Halley, a senior analyst at the brokerage firm OANDA, said: “It takes a substantial drop in natural gas and coal prices to curb oil prices.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday (October 12) lowered the growth prospects of the United States and other major industrialized countries, and stated that continued supply chain disruptions and price pressures hindered the recovery of the global economy from the new crown epidemic. However, the IMF moderately revised up the growth forecasts of some commodity exporting countries, such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, due to rising prices of commodities such as oil.

Three people familiar with the matter said that Saudi Arabia will require foreign companies in the energy industry, including petrochemical and desalination sectors, to increase local investment to at least 70% before they can obtain government contracts. This is Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's promotion of economic diversification, aiming to create tens of thousands of jobs for young Saudis and reduce their dependence on crude oil income.

According to data released by data analysis company Enverus on Tuesday, the U.S. crude oil and gas industry's transaction volume in the third quarter of 2021 fell from its two-year high in the previous quarter as the industry cooled off from post-pandemic consolidation and focused on selling Non-core assets.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) said that the rebound in oil prices is widening the economic gap between oil exporters and importers in the Middle East and North Africa. IIF pointed out that by the end of 2022, public foreign investment in the Gulf countries-including foreign exchange reserves and sovereign wealth funds-will increase to more than 3 trillion US dollars, equivalent to 170% of GDP.

The current account surplus of oil-producing countries this year will reach 165 billion U.S. dollars, and the current account surplus next year will reach 138 billion U.S. dollars. Based on crude oil price forecasts of US$71 per barrel this year and US$66 next year, the current account deficit last year was US$6 billion.

In contrast, for the importing countries Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia and Sudan, the total current account deficit this year will increase from US$27 billion in 2020 to US$35 billion this year. This is mainly due to the cost of crude oil imports. Rise and decline in tourism revenue.