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International oil prices are expected to rise by nearly 5% this week, and "gas to oil" may increase demand by at least 500,000 barrels per day

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

On Friday (October 8), international oil prices rose and are expected to close by 5% this week, because there are signs that some industries have begun to switch from high-priced natural gas to oil as fuel, and the market doubts whether the US government will temporarily release its oil strategy reserve.

GMT+8 14:39, NYMEX crude oil futures rose 1.40% to 79.38 US dollars / barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 1.26% to 82.97 US dollars / barrel.


Earlier this week, US crude oil hit a high of $79.78 per barrel since November 10, 2014, and ICE Brent crude oil hit a high of $83.47 since October 10, 2018. Due to soaring natural gas prices, power generation and some industries are encouraged to switch to oil, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led allies (OPEC+) have decided to maintain the current plan to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day.

Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “There are many incentives to keep the oil market tight.” He also pointed out that with the rebound in economic activity and the relaxation of epidemic prevention restrictions, fuel demand has shown signs of improvement. In addition, people are worried about natural gas supply in the cold winter. More nervous. The market highly anticipates that the huge gap between supply and demand will not change in the foreseeable future.

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) analyst Vivek Dhar said in a report: "Oil prices have risen after the U.S. Department of Energy stated that it'at this time' does not intend to use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease the rise in oil prices."

However, a reporter posted on social media that “the statement that the Ministry of Energy currently does not consider the use of strategic oil reserves” is not accurate. The Ministry of Energy “is considering all tools” to cope with the tight energy supply in the market.

Royal Bank of Canada Commodity Strategist Michael Tran said in a report released on Friday: “Prices are rising again, especially if Brent crude oil breaks through the $85/barrel mark, it may re-ignite discussions about whether the US Department of Energy Take action (release strategic reserves) to alleviate the surge in energy prices."

Swedbank’s chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop predicts that soaring natural gas prices will enable oil to replace natural gas power generation to an unprecedented level. He said: "This has never happened on a global scale. The market has been trying to replace expensive oil from cheap natural gas before, and now it has completely reversed the situation. The scale of the shift from natural gas to oil is difficult to determine, but it is estimated to be 500,000 per day. Barrel or higher."

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts output in the first quarter of next year at 1.5-2 million barrels per day. IEA also stated that the countries most willing to carry out gas-to-oil power generation will come from the Middle East, as well as other Asian countries such as Indonesia, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

ANZ Bank Commodity Analyst said in a report: “Accelerating the conversion of natural gas to oil may increase the demand for power generation. Winter in the northern hemisphere is coming.” He added that when winter comes, it includes diesel and heating. U.S. distillate stocks, including oil, are at their lowest level since 2000.

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