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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Interest rate hike prescriptions may be difficult to cure the pound's stubborn illness, investment banks expect the pound to look at 1.32 against the dollar

Eden

Oct 26, 2021 10:55

The power to bet that the pound will fall is increasing, as the market speculates that the Bank of England’s efforts to curb inflation will affect economic growth prospects and drag down consumer confidence. According to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, speculators are increasing their shorts against the pound at the fastest rate in more than two years, further breaking the link between expected interest rate hikes and currency appreciation.

At the same time, strategists at CIBC, RBC Europe and Societe Generale expect the pound to fall to near its lowest level since the end of 2020 in the coming weeks and months. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group maintained its pound-to-dollar target at 1.32.



Two major risks in fundamentals put pressure on, the pound is expected to weaken further against the dollar


Foreign exchange analysts at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) pointed out that the yield on British government bonds has risen sharply in the past few weeks. The pound has strengthened against the euro and the yen, but the group pointed out that the pound's rise is not broadly based. Given the extent of the increase in yields, the pound's rise is relatively weak.

MUFG also expects the U.S. dollar to strengthen further. Analysts of the bank said: "We expect that as the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen more broadly, there will be a more sustained decline in the next few months. In this case, the pound is expected to further strengthen against the U.S. We weaken, we will maintain the 1.3200 target. "

MUFG pointed out that British government bond yields continued to rise, with the two-year government bond yield approaching 1.20% from a low of 0.50% in early August. Inflation expectations have also risen to levels before the financial crisis broke out in July 2008.

Rising energy prices have been a key factor in causing inflation concerns. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group pointed out that the change in the wording of the Bank of England (BoE) is also a key factor: "The UK’s rising inflation expectations and the Bank of England’s increasingly tough stance are the key drivers for the recent increase in the UK’s short- and long-term yields. ."

The prospect of the central bank's rate hike may not be able to withstand inflationary pressures, and the trend of the pound is showing signs of weakness


MUFG said: “The remarks of the Bank of England officials over the weekend provide a further strong signal that the Bank of England is close to raising interest rates. The upcoming meetings in November and December are very'active'.” The prospect of interest rate hikes has brought some support to the pound. However, MUFG pointed out that the pound's rise is based on a narrow basis and is concentrated against the euro, the yen and the New Zealand dollar. The pound has already suffered losses against other major currencies, falling more than 3% against Canadian and Norwegian currencies. Rising energy costs will weaken British consumer demand, and may also severely damage global risk appetite.

MUFG said: “The failure of the pound to strengthen under the support of the prospects for interest rate hikes in the UK may reflect to a certain extent that people are worried that inflationary pressures in the UK may be more troublesome than elsewhere and will erode the relative value of the pound. ” MUFG expects , As the Fed will announce its reduction in the size of its debt structure at its November policy meeting, the U.S. dollar will gain further gains. The group pointed out: "Before the end of the year, fundamental factors have already indicated that the dollar will strengthen."

However, the group also pointed out that the U.S. dollar has potential risks, especially if Fed Chairman Powell is not nominated for re-election due to regulatory considerations: " If Chairman Powell is replaced by a left-leaning candidate who is more pro-growth, the U.S. dollar may suffer. Blow. "

In the European market on Tuesday (October 12), the British pound oscillated within a narrow range against the US dollar, and the bulls have been unable to maintain the exchange rate above the 1.36 mark.


(Pound against the U.S. dollar daily chart)

GMT+8 15:50 on October 12, the pound against the US dollar reported 1.3596/98