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July 29th - Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, predicts the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by September, making this weeks meeting crucial. With the market already pricing in a rate hike this year, Kalish asks rhetorically, "Why wait?" He believes a rate hike would solidify the Feds independence and enhance its credibility. However, he also points out that there are ample reasons to keep rates unchanged, including the latest inflation data and maintaining stable inflation expectations.On July 29th, BNP Paribas Markets 360 team expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, "although the possibility of an unexpected rate hike cannot be completely ruled out." The banks baseline scenario is a rate hike in December, but "there is a significant risk that policymakers will strengthen inflation language in the FOMC statement, which would be tantamount to suggesting a September rate hike is on the agenda." Language regarding price stability will be a focus of discussion at this meeting, and the statement will reflect a willingness to act if necessary. However, even without such language in the statement, a September rate hike is not ruled out; conversely, the inclusion of such language does not guarantee a September rate hike. At the press conference, Warsh is expected to largely follow the pattern of June: a brief opening, concise answers, and very limited forward guidance. Assuming the statement is not significantly different from June, we believe the opening remarks will closely follow Warshs testimony to Congress, and his statements on inflation and labor data, the economic outlook, and his commitment to restoring price stability will also be consistent with his testimony.On July 29th, Gary Puzzio, Chief Investment Officer of Private Wealth in the US at CIBC, stated that Warshs hawkish stance on price stability, coupled with a batch of weak data (CPI and non-farm payrolls), may be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on hold. This aligns with market sentiment. "Interest rate futures point to a no-go at the July meeting," Puzzio said, "but expectations for a September rate hike have been rising. Given the current geopolitical context, September is still a long time away, and the Fed will have more data to process between now and September 16th."JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for Coca-Cola (KO.N) from $90 to $96.JPMorgan Chase raised its price target for PayPal (PYPL.O) from $46 to $65.

In Colombia, natural gas consumption has outpaced production

Charlie Brooks

Jun 28, 2022 11:31


According to our most recent Colombia Country Analysis Brief, Colombia imported 14,2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas to help meet its natural gas demand for electricity in 2020, when a drop in hydroelectric power was caused by drought.


In 2020, hydroelectricity will contribute to around 65% of Colombia's electrical generation, down from nearly 80% in earlier years. Since hydropower is Colombia's principal energy source, droughts may have a significant effect on the country's electrical producing mix.


The bulk of natural gas used in Colombia is produced domestically and employed to create electricity. In recent years, imports have progressively bridged the gap between domestic natural gas production and domestic demand. In 2020, Colombia produced 399 Bcf of dry natural gas, while domestic consumption was 413 Bcf.


Concerns over the reliability of the nation's electricity supply prompted the Colombian government to approve the Sociedad Portuaria El Cayao (SPEC) LNG import plant in November 2014. The facility started operations in November 2016. The administration has since proposed the Pacific Regasification LNG terminal as the nation's second LNG import plant.


EPM is currently developing the new hydroelectric dam project Ituango. The first of eight 300-megawatt generating units will commence operating in the second part of 2022. The whole project will have a capacity of 2.4 gigawatts when it is finished in 2025. If completed, the Ituango project would be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Colombia in terms of generating capacity. In 2020, the installed electrical production capacity of Colombia was 17 gigawatts.