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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Hedge funds in the United Kingdom and Putin are cashing in while the world shoots itself in the foot over oil

Haiden Holmes

Mar 31, 2022 10:27

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Those who remember the 1970s can attest that unrelated foreign governments poking their paddles into political matters they do not understand and that are taking place thousands of miles away from their comfortable offices frequently end up destroying the lives of their own citizens rather than resolving any turmoils that are none of their business.


The United States chose a side in the early 1970s Yom Kippur War in the Middle East, and as a result, the Arab League countries, who provided the bulk of oil to the United States at the time, opted to react with a trade embargo.


As a consequence, fuel restrictions, very high energy costs, and a 55mph speed limit were imposed.


Today, things are likely to become a lot worse for a much less serious time of political turmoil.


It seems that the present situation is poised to destabilize the inhabitants of Europe and America, while boosting Russia and its allies.


The huge exodus of multinational corporations from important global markets has resulted in supply shortages and logistical problems.


It is critical to examine the basic bones and structure of any local economy. The majority of Western economies are focused on tertiary services and are net consumers rather than producers, while Russia has a non-diversified, raw materials-based economy and is a significant supplier of oil and gas to the rest of the world.


Yesterday, the more astute observers in the banking and electronic trading sectors calculated very clearly that if Russia now sells only 30% of its annual production of natural gas and oil, its energy producing industry, which is the largest in the world, would generate 100% of the revenues that it would have generated if it had sold 100% of its annual production before all of these sanctions were imposed.


In layman's terms, this implies that Russia may now sell one-third of its gas and oil for the price it would have received for the whole amount.


Who is the true victor in this situation? Not the customer. Many UK people will soon be lining up to fill up their vehicle with petrol for £250 per tank, or figure out how to heat their house without spending £1000 per month. As a result, the market has become inflationary.


Looking at it another way, it is the Western countries who have turned on their own people over the last two years.


Gas costs in the United Kingdom alone have risen from an average of 55p per therm to 700p per therm for many private customers.


Crispin Odey, a well-known investor who has previously mastered tumultuous markets, has increased his returns by 30% in the last two weeks as a consequence of the market upheaval.


Mr. Odey correctly said that the UK is just in the early stages of an "energy crisis," and that prices would rise higher, plunging the Western world into a devastating recession.


Following the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021, this is the next step in the program.


We all saw the G7 leaders gathering in Glasgow last year in the name of the 'climate,' and the ESG roll-out began among many corporations.


Oil and gas are clearly commodities that are in more demand than ever before, and in India and China, they are being imported and consumed at such a pace that the black stuff cannot be refined fast enough to reach its buyers. It's business as usual in India and China.


Russian oil companies will just sell their now exorbitantly priced oil to China and India, both of which will continue to produce, expand, and run their massive economies with zeal.


As a result, oil and gas are the commodities to keep an eye on. Things called 'naughty pleasures' are often highly valued.


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