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August 13th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the main Shanghai gold futures contract rose 0.36% to 959 yuan/gram, the main Shanghai silver futures contract rose 0.63% to 16,024 yuan/kilogram, and the main SC crude oil futures contract rose 0.63% to 556 yuan/barrel.August 13th - According to the Globe and Mail, the Canadian government is considering a proposed auto tariff package, hoping to accept some U.S. auto tariffs in exchange for lower U.S. tariffs on vehicles compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The package includes maintaining the exemption policy, meaning the value of U.S.-made parts in Canadian-exported cars will not be included in the tariff calculation. Sources indicate that U.S. and Canadian negotiators have discussed the proposal. Preliminary details suggest that the auto tariffs imposed by Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 could be further reduced from the current 25% tariff on all USMCA-compliant Canadian auto exports. Furthermore, the value of U.S. parts in Canadian-made cars will remain excluded from the tariff calculation. Approximately 50% of the parts in a Canadian-made car come from the U.S., and businesses believe that a 10% to 15% tariff level would be acceptable if U.S. components were excluded. The goal is to reach an agreement by August 19th. Canadian officials believe that a deferral of the next round of tariffs is more likely by August 19th than a comprehensive resolution to the Section 232 tariff issue.On August 13th, the U.S. Treasury Department reported on Wednesday that the U.S. budget deficit has surged to its highest monthly level in more than five years, driven by soaring Medicare costs and continued pressure from federal debt interest payments. In addition to the significant single-month increase, the cumulative deficit for the first 10 months of fiscal year 2026 has approached $1.8 trillion, exceeding the figure for the same period in fiscal year 2025. The total deficit in July reached $432.3 billion, an increase of approximately 48% compared to the same period last year, marking the largest single-month deficit since March 2021 and setting a new July record. Medicare spending reached $174 billion that month, up from $103 billion in June, bringing the total for the year to $955 billion. This was the largest single expenditure in July, far exceeding Social Security spending of $141 billion and net interest payments on national debt of $104 billion. Furthermore, tariff rebates also impacted the budget by $33 billion. Additionally, U.S. fiscal revenue was negatively affected by a calendar factor of $99 billion, as the first day of the month was a non-working day. For years, Trump has urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to ease debt costs. Since his nominee, Warsh, took over as chairman in May, he has ceased criticizing the Fed.On August 13th, Reuters, citing sources, reported that Alphabet, the parent company of Google (GOOG.O), is undergoing a major leadership reshuffle at Google DeepMind, with some teams moving from DeepMind to the Google corporate system, further weakening DeepMinds autonomy. Sources said that Google co-founder Sergey Brin has been urging core AI employees in recent months to "fully commit" to the Gemini model and push for AI research in areas such as "recursive self-improvement." Following this reshuffle, DeepMind head Demis Hassabis will become chairman, with his deputy Kolai Kavukuoğlu taking over leadership responsibilities. Google stated that Kavukuoğlu will have final say on major decisions at DeepMind. Sources said that Google has postponed the release of the new flagship Gemini model by two months because internal testing showed it still lags behind competitors in areas such as programming. Analysts believe that Alphabets restructuring aims to accelerate AI commercialization and regain a competitive edge in model development, but some employees worry that DeepMinds long-term research autonomy may further decline.On August 13, according to a statement from the Iraqi Prime Ministers Media Office, Iraqi Prime Minister Mullah Zaidi met with visiting U.S. Central Command Commander General Robert Cooper on August 12. During the meeting, Zaidi reiterated Iraqs commitment to the established timetable, namely, September 30th is the final date for the international coalition forces to end their military mission in Iraq and complete their withdrawal. Zaidi stated that October 1st will be a new day in Iraqi history, when Iraq will completely rid itself of all foreign military presence, realize its territorial sovereignty, continuously enhance its national security and military capabilities, and safeguard its own security and stability.

Goldman Sachs Has Improved Humana's Competitive Standing

Aria Thomas

Dec 14, 2022 10:41

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Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded shares of Humana (NYSE:HUM) to Buy with a $652 price target in a research note published on Tuesday.


The company's improved "competitive positioning in MA and underappreciated HC Services opportunity should outweigh the potential RADV impact," which Goldman Sachs estimates to range between $2.6 and $5.8 billion (NPV) before offsetting factors.


Analysts stated, "We see a strengthening earnings outlook as a result of improved competitive positioning in Massachusetts, which has reaccelerated member growth for 2023 and could lead to multiple years of share gains in 2024 when many competitors will face Stars headwinds." "We also see an attractive and undervalued opportunity in the health care services sector, with primary care earnings having the potential to outperform its September guidance,"


While analysts assert that the company is aware of the significant risk posed by the forthcoming RADV ruling, their EPS estimates for 2024-2025 are 4% higher than the industry average.


This reflects "3% higher member growth and a primary care EBITDA opportunity of $205mn-$395mn for 2025," which is "above the company's $100-$200mn outlook in its mid-term guidance, with more of this EBITDA hitting the P&L as WCAS centers come onto the balance sheet."


"Despite the stock's outperformance in 2022 (+18% YTD vs. MCO group +13%), the stock trades in line with its historical median despite higher forward EPS CAGR of 15% vs. its 3-year history of 12%," concluded the analysts.