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February 19th - Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that the Fed meeting minutes showed more officials were less concerned about the labor market, while concerns about inflation increased. The minutes stated that most officials cautioned that progress in reducing inflation "may be slower and more uneven than generally expected." They considered the risk of inflation persistently above the Feds 2% target "significant." Similarly, according to the minutes, Fed staff described a more persistent, above-target inflation range as "a significant risk." Data released after the January meeting may embolden officials who believe there is no need to rush further rate cuts, and the market widely expects the Fed to hold rates steady again at next months meeting. Last week, the Labor Department reported that employers added 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%, easing concerns about a more severe slowdown in the labor market. Nevertheless, annual revised data showed a sharp slowdown in job growth over the past year.Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: January food price surge may be attributed to weather.WTI crude oil surged 5% intraday, currently trading at $65.42 per barrel.February 19th - On February 18th local time, Russia, the United States, and Ukraine responded to the latest round of trilateral talks in Geneva. White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that the latest round of trilateral contact between the US, Russia, and Ukraine "made meaningful progress," and all parties agreed to continue negotiations. However, Levitt also stated that the US continues to sell weapons to its NATO allies for its own defense. Ukrainian Presidential Chief of Staff and member of the Ukrainian negotiating delegation, Budanov, posted on his official social media platform on the 18th that another round of negotiations in Geneva had concluded, and while the dialogue was difficult, it was very important. He stated that the Ukrainian team is prepared to continue negotiations in the near future. Ukraine will persevere. Ukrainian sources stated that the military group made progress on coordinating procedural issues. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov stated on the evening of the 18th that the Geneva negotiations that day lasted shorter than the first day, but this did not mean there was no progress; the Russian delegation participating in the Geneva negotiations would report to President Putin immediately.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "The sanctions imposed on Moscow have hindered the development of good economic and trade relations between the United States and Russia."

Gold price prediction: XAU/USD expects to reach $1,770 before the combined US ISM data

Alina Haynes

Aug 01, 2022 11:45

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The optimism shown last week in the Asian session for Gold Price (XAU/USD) is anticipated to continue as escalating recession worries in the US economy have fueled demand for the precious metal. The yellow metal moved sideways after setting a new three-week high at $1,768, but despite intense pricing pressures in the US economy, further gains are still justified.

 

The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for Friday came in at 6.8%, above estimates and the previous release of 6.7% and 6.3%, respectively. Well, a 50 basis point increase in the Federal Reserve's (Fed) favored inflation gauge shows no symptoms of a price pressures weariness. However, anxiety over the recession has suddenly increased.

 

Investors will be watching the US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) data release in today's session. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is probably going to drop from its previous reading of 53 to 52. A decline in the Manufacturing PMI suggests that the Fed's aggressive increase in interest rates has begun to show its effects, but inflation has not yet been fully contained, which is a major cause for concern. Although the economic data is now higher at 52 compared to the previous release of 49.2, the New Orders Index still warrants a respectable improvement. This demonstrates that despite skyrocketing prices, consumer spending is rising quickly.