Gold analysis: waiting for the non-agricultural report to be released, the gold range fluctuates and stabilizes

On Thursday (October 7), spot gold was basically flat on Thursday, with a slight drop of 0.06% to US$1,761.85 per ounce.



Under pressure from the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and rising yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds, gold's short-term rebound was suppressed. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit a high of 1.571% since June 18; the US dollar is not far from the high of 94.504 recorded last week since September 28 last year, weakening the attractiveness of gold to holders of other currencies. Based on the expectations of monetary policy, the downward trend of gold prices has not yet been well improved, and there are still significant signs of rising cost pressures in the global economy, which will continue to prompt investors to pay attention to the central bank's tightening policies. The non-agricultural employment report to be released this week may change the logic of the gold market. Once the expected reduction in debt purchases is fully digested, the financial market will pay more attention to the economic outlook in 2022, which will give many investors the green light to return to the gold market. Therefore, the market remains cautious until the key employment data is released. At the same time, as the deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling is approaching, the gold shorts dare not take it lightly. The price of gold may consolidate between US$1720 and US$1775.

From a technical point of view, the short-term trend of gold is relatively volatile and difficult to operate. It is expected that this Friday's non-agricultural report will guide the direction of the next trend of gold prices. Before this, the price of gold may continue to fluctuate within the range. The technical side is mixed. On the one hand, the MACD is at a low level to form a golden cross, and on the other hand, the price of gold is still running below the middle track of the Bollinger Band. If the price of gold holds the trend line support, it will lay the foundation for further increases. The upper resistance focuses on the 38.2% retracement at 1764.27, and further attention is paid to the 50% retracement at 1777.59 and the 61.8% retracement at 1790.91. Below support is concerned about the 23.6% retracement level of 1747.79, and further attention is paid to the low of 1738.12 on September 23 and the low of 1721.76 on September 29.

Only personal views, not representative of the views of the organization

Source: Bank of China's official website, Bank of China Guangdong Branch Wang Gang, original title: "20211008-Waiting for the non-agricultural report to be published, the golden range fluctuates and waits for stability"